999
FXUS63 KTOP 232310
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
610 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat returns Monday and Tuesday with heat indicies
  ranging from 100-110 degrees.

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly
  across far eastern KS.

- Warm for the remainder of the week with low confidence chances
  for rain Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A "cooler" day is underway this afternoon as temperatures have
slowly climbed into the upper 80s area wide with surface high
pressure parked over the region. Expect temperatures to increase a
few degrees further and into the low to mid 90s by peak heating
hours. Zooming out and taking a glance at synoptic features across
the CONUS, a large dome of high pressure is still parked over the
desert southwest with the main westerlies along the northern third
of the country. This will be the main weather pattern over the next
week as energy that rounds the upper ridge moves across the plains,
slightly increasing PoPs each day, although confidence remains low in
exact timing and positioning of precipitation.

Monday will see the warmest temperatures of the week as deep
afternoon mixing of very warm 850 and 700 mb temperatures, large-
scale subsidence and minimal cloud cover leads to afternoon
temperatures topping out in the upper 90s and low 100s. Subtle
moisture return on the backside of the surface ridge will usher back
in low 70 degree dewpoints making heat indicies swell to near 110
degrees in spots. A Heat Advisory will be in effect tomorrow
afternoon to help message the dangerous heat. The heat will persist
into Tuesday as the large upper ridge dominates the southern US.
Opted not to put out a heat advisory on Tuesday at this moment due
to uncertainty with how widespread heat advisory conditions will
become. This is in part due to some mid-level energy rounding the
upper ridge during the day Tuesday, ushering in lift needed for an
increase in cloud cover. This only might dampen temperatures a few
degrees during the afternoon, but might help to keep heat indices in
the 100-104 degree range. That said, isolated areas will see heat
advisory criteria, but it will not likely be as widespread as
Monday. Will continue to monitor trends to see what kind of headline
is needed for Tuesday.

By Tuesday evening, a more compact upper low in the northern Plains
pushes east with a surface boundary extending south into KS. Lift
increasing along this boundary will lead to increased PoPs,
especially across Missouri and into eastern Kansas (40-60%).
Precipitation moves out by Wednesday afternoon with cooler
temperatures expected behind the frontal boundary. Temperatures
Wednesday topping out in the upper 80s and low 90s with dewpoints in
the low 60s will be a nice relief compared to how Monday and Tuesday
will feel.

Beyond Wednesday, several mid-level vorticity maximums rounding the
upper ridge should develop convection across western Kansas, moving
east into the area Thursday and Friday morning. With weak steering
flow and the jet stream positioned north of the area, storm chances
for the end of the week will be more of a mesoscale forecast as
confidence in exact timing and location of MCSs is low at this time.
By the weekend, long range guidance continues to hint at a long wave
trough digging into the central Plains, pushing a surface boundary
across the area. With more shear and instability associated with the
mid-level trough, cannot rule out this system bringing in our next
chance for stronger thunderstorms to the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected. A modest low-level jet should keep
winds mixed enough to prevent any diurnal BR formation despite
nearly clear skies through the night. Mixing should ensue by 15Z
with southerly gusts common through the end of this forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Record hot temperatures are possible Monday and Tuesday

          Record High              Forecast High

June 24   Topeka: 104 (1937)       Topeka: 101
          Concordia: 106 (1937)    Concordia: 105

June 25   Topeka: 106 (1911)       Topeka: 97
          Concordia: 104 (1988)    Concordia: 100


          Record Highest Minimum   Forecast Minimum

June 25   Topeka: 82 (1911)        Topeka: 77
          Concordia: 80 (1952)     Concordia: 77

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008-KSZ009-
KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Poage
CLIMATE...Poage