Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
197 FXUS64 KTSA 270527 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1227 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 908 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A fairly quiet overnight will exist for most of the forecast area, with seasonal temperatures and dry conditions. The exception to the latter remains near the Red River, where CAMs show continued potential for isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop through the evening. Will maintain the low POPs in this area to cover this potential. All other elements appear on track as well, and the only update needed to the going forecast is the removal of the expired Heat Advisory. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Hot and muggy conditions will persist from Thursday through Saturday afternoon. In response, have elected to post an Excessive Heat Watch for Friday in a few of our Oklahoma counties where apparent T`s are expected to surpass 110F. A low potential will exist for some isolated storms across the northern part of the CWA Thursday afternoon associated with a subtle shortwave near the OK/KS border. Have adjusted PoPs accordingly. More widespread thunderstorms will occur Saturday night through Sunday afternoon, especially across northwest Arkansas and the northern half of eastern Oklahoma. Subsidence associated with the ridge may limit thunderstorm chances across the southeast Oklahoma. For the remainder of the forecast period, hot and muggy conditions will once again dominate, and additional heat headlines will likely be needed by early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Overall, VFR conditions are expected through the period for all sites. Guidance continues to suggest potential for pockets of reduced visibility across NW AR sites late tonight/ early tomorrow morning, so have left TEMPO groups in for FYV/XNA/ROG between 10-13z. Otherwise, FEW to SCT mid and high clouds are forecast through the period. Low chance for scattered showers/ storms to move near NE OK sites this afternoon and overnight, however the potential for this appears low enough to preclude mention in TAFs at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 94 78 100 83 / 20 0 0 10 FSM 94 75 99 80 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 94 76 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 92 74 101 80 / 10 20 0 20 FYV 92 71 96 77 / 10 0 0 0 BYV 90 69 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 MKO 92 75 98 80 / 0 0 0 0 MIO 91 74 97 80 / 0 20 10 20 F10 92 75 98 79 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 92 74 96 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Excessive Heat Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for OKZ055-056-060>062-066-067-070. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...43