789
FXUS64 KTSA 041130
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today/Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Hopefully this will be the last day of heat headlines through
at least early next week. Dangerous heat/humidity is again
expected this afternoon, ahead of cold front, with heat indices
climbing into the 105-112 deg range. A few showers and maybe an
isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible this morning across
far northeast Oklahoma but no severe weather is expected.

Cold front is forecast to move into portions of northeast Oklahoma
by mid afternoon, most likely located over Pawnee/Osage and
Washington counties. A moderately unstable air-mass is expected
along and south of boundary with MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/kg. Deep
layer shear will also begin to increase as upper jet streak shifts
into the central Plains.

Strong to severe storms are expected to develop ahead of frontal
boundary, with storms moving to near the I-44 corridor by late
afternoon. Some of these storms will likely be severe (70% chance of
multiple warnings) with damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph and
marginally severe hail. Storms will likely become more linear with
time, as cold pool develops, with broken line segments moving into
east-central Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas early this evening. Severe
threat should diminish by late evening with the loss of heating and
as storms push south away from the stronger upper level forcing.
Some indications there could be few storms redevelop across portions
of northeast Oklahoma near or just north of front, but this is less
certain. In addition to the severe threat, locally heavy rainfall
will be likely as PWAT values climb to around 2.00 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A few lingering showers/thunderstorms will remain possible across
far southeast Oklahoma Friday morning before cold front pushes
south. A welcome break from the heat/humidity expected behind the
front with high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. Weak
surface high pressure builds into the region into Saturday as
northwest flow aloft continues.

Both GFS/ECMWF still suggest the potential for an MCS to move into
portions of Oklahoma Sunday evening/overnight as stronger upper wave
dives southeast into the central Plains. Obviously there is still
some uncertainty regarding evolution, however strongest storms
may remain west of area in the deeper moisture/instability axis.
Regardless, precipitation chances will increase, especially
across northeast Oklahoma.

Temperatures are expected to remain near normal into the early to
middle part of next week as west to northwest flow aloft persists.
Remnants of Beryl should remain mainly south of area during this
time, but increasing low level moisture will likely allow for at
least scattered, mainly afternoon/evening storms across SE OK/NW
AR both Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Overall, VFR is expected to prevail at all terminal sites through
the next 24 hours. A frontal boundary will advance southward into
eastern OK and northwest AR this afternoon/evening. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary beginning
late this afternoon. Maintained PROB30 groups for thunderstorms at
the NE OK and NW AR terminals (beginning around 21z) and between
00-06z for the rest of the TAF sites. Organized thunderstorms
that are able to move or develop over the aerodromes will be
capable of strong, gusty winds and heavy rainfall, likely lowering
ceilings and reducing visibilities for a brief period. Latest hi-
res models show additional showers/storms developing after
midnight across portions of eastern OK and northwest AR. Did add
-SHRA at MLC and all of the AR terminals beyond 06z, though
confidence of coverage and timing are low at this time.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   99  69  90  67 /  70  50   0   0
FSM  100  75  92  69 /  30  70  10   0
MLC   99  72  88  66 /  20  60  20  10
BVO   96  65  89  63 /  40  40   0   0
FYV   97  68  87  63 /  40  70  10   0
BYV   98  68  87  63 /  40  70  10   0
MKO   98  70  87  65 /  40  70  10   0
MIO   96  66  87  63 /  50  60   0   0
F10   99  69  87  65 /  40  60  10   0
HHW   97  73  88  68 /   0  50  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>059-063-064-068-069-075.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060>062-065>067-070>074-076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...67