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243
FXUS61 KAKQ 061927
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
327 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes across the region this evening, with
scattered strong to severe storms possible. Behind the front,
cooler, drier conditions push into the region for Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Severe T-Storm Watch 394 continues until 9pm for MD/VA
  counties.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of an approaching
  cold front into the evening hours. Slight Risk for severe
  storms and Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Damaging wind
  gusts, heavy rain, & frequent lightning are the main threats.

- Clearing late tonight, with drier air moving into the region.

Latest analysis reveals ~990mb low pressure over Ontario into
the eastern Great Lakes, with a mid-level shortwave diving
across the interior northeast early this afternoon. The
associated cold front extends across eastern PA SSW into western
VA and the western Carolinas. Tightening pressure gradient
between low pressure to the NW and broad surface high pressure
offshore has allowed for increasingly breezy SSW winds over the
region, with most sites gusting 20-30mph (highest for coastal
areas. A rather warm/moist airmass remains in place across the
region, with 1.6-1.9" PW on 12z regional RAOBs.


Minimal changes to forecast thinking. showers and storms
continue to develop along the pre-frontal trough and push east.
Based on 12z CAMs, still expect storms to congeal into a broken
line and push through the region late this aftn and this
evening, with storms moving NNW to SSE ~20 kt. Mesoanalysis
showing a broad area of ~1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE as of this
writing, and with some further heating likely (especially south
central and SE VA) could see MLCAPE approach 2k J/kg by late
aftn. Deep layer bulk shear will be modest, (25-30kt), but
continue to think this will be sufficient to support a
convection and at least scattered strong to severe storms. SPC
has issued WW394 for our VA/MD counties), with much of our
region now in a Slight Risk for severe, as well as a Marginal
Risk ERO across our northern half of the area. The primary
threat with storms this aftn and evening will be damaging wind
gusts, with a secondary threat of localized flooding, especially
in flood prone/urbanized areas.

Timing for storms is through 4-5 pm in the far western portion
of the VA piedmont, and between 4-8 pm for the I-95 corridor to
the coast. Areal coverage of showers and storms still appears to
be greatest north of US-460, again owing to best bulk shear.
This is the same reason that the watch does not yet extend into
NC, but we will continue to monitor the potential farther south.
Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are the main threats
from any strong to severe storms, with frequent lightning also
likely in any developing convection.

Showers/storms exit the area after midnight tonight. Clouds
will scatter out and winds diminish as the front passes through
this evening. Early morning lows in the low 60s inland and in
the upper 60s-around 70 closer to the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Drier weather returns for Friday and Saturday.

- Another weak front pushes through the area Sunday, but should
  remain mostly dry

Drier weather moves into the region Friday behind the departing
cold front, with dewpoints drop into the 50s. Aloft, an upper
level low moves into the Great Lakes on Fri, lingering into
early next week. Guidance continues to trend toward pushing the
weakening front though the region on Sunday night, but it still
appears the upper level low is too close to the local area for
enough instability for much in the way of widespread showers
and/or storms on Sunday. Have stuck with slight to low- end Chc
PoPs across far northern counties in the afternoon with slight
chc PoPs everywhere else except the SE. May see slightly higher
coverage by later in the evening.

Thicknesses change only slightly tomorrow, so expect highs again
in the low 80s in the NW and on the Eastern Shore, mid-upper 80s
elsewhere. A few degrees cooler (and drier) on Saturday with
highs mostly in the low to mid 80s. Warmer on Sunday with highs
mid to upper 80s to near 90 SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Near to below normal temps expected in the early week period
  with warmer temps returning mid-week

- Mostly dry through the early week, but isolated showers
  possible

A bit cooler in the early week period as a fairly deep UL trough
lingers over the northeast. This feature will keep us near to
just below normal for highs, with maxima expected to remain in
the upper 70s in the far N/NW and low 80s elsewhere Mon/Tue.
Temps warm up into the mid- upper 80s again mid- week once the
trough is offshore and a ridge builds in behind it. Precip in
the early week period is a bit uncertain and likely to be
isolated at best with the trough in the area, but we should
remain mainly dry. Kept PoPs to slight to low-end Chc with
mainly diurnal timing.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions prevail to begin the 18z/6 TAF period. Gusty SSW
winds are gusting to ~25-30kt near the coast. Still expecting
showers to congeal into a line of showers and storms in the next
few hours out ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and
storms move through between 22-02z this afternoon/evening, and
short-lived flight restrictions are possible (mainly VSBY) along
with some locally stronger thunderstorm outflow/wind gusts
(potentially 30-40kt). Returning to VFR late this evening and
overnight, as the front crosses through overnight. Winds
diminish behind the front and clouds scatter out.

Outlook: Dry and VFR Friday and Saturday behind the cold front.
Another cold front will bring a slight chc of showers/tstms
later Sunday. A slight chc of showers/tstms lingers in to
Monday, but overall VFR conditions should prevail Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

- Small Craft Advisories have been cancelled as of 3PM this
afternoon.

- Showers/storms will cause locally higher winds and waves this
evening.

- Moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches through this
evening with a low risk at all area beaches expected Friday into the
weekend.

Afternoon analysis shows low pressure over western Ontario with a
cold front extending southward along the spine of the Appalachians.
Surface high pressure is well offshore, leading to SW winds around
15 kt across the local waters. Waves in the bay are 1-2 ft with seas
offshore running 2-4 ft.

Pressure gradient has finally relaxed a bit after multiple
extensions to previous SCA headlines this morning and early
afternoon. Expect SW flow to continue for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening with the cold front still to the west. Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 394 has been issued for all local waters north of
the VA/NC border through 9PM this evening. Strong straight line
winds are the main threat from thunderstorms but enhanced waves/seas
and frequent CG lightning are likely with the stronger convective
cells this evening. Most of the storms should move well offshore by
midnight with the cold front expected to cross the waters
thereafter. Winds will generally be from the west 5-10 kt on Friday
but a surge of cooler/drier air looks to move through the area
Friday evening into the overnight with winds becoming NW and
increasing to ~15 kt. Some of the hi-res guidance is now showing the
potential for a brief period of SCA conditions Friday night but
confidence is too low at this point to raise headlines. Expecting
mostly quiet marine conditions for Sunday into early next week. Flow
becomes SW once again on Sunday ahead of the next cold front which
should cross the waters Sunday evening. Waves/seas will average 1-2
ft and 2-3 ft, respectively, into early next week.

Low rip current risk is forecast for all area beaches Friday and
Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Some nuisance/low-end minor coastal flooding is forecast during
tonight`s high tide cycle for bay-facing portions of the MD
Eastern Shore including Cambridge, Bishops Head, and Crisfield
where a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AM/MAM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ