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067
FXUS61 KALY 230147
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
947 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
It will remain warm and muggy through this evening with
some showers and thunderstorms around.  Any thunderstorm will be
capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours.  With the warm
and humid air mass still in place, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected again on Sunday, with some of those
storms potentially being severe.  A few showers may linger into
Monday, but cooler and less humid air will briefly be returning to
the region, before another warm and humid air mass returns towards
the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and scattered thunderstorms tracking into the Schoharie
Valley and eastern Catskills, weakening as they track east. A
weak and diffuse backdoor boundary dropped south and southwest
through our region today, aided by the earlier convection. So,
this diffuse, pseudo warm front may hold in place through the
night, as convection tracks east and weakens. Still, locally
heavy rain and thunder and lightning through the night, perhaps
anchoring this diffuse boundary until daytime tomorrow, when
boundary layer winds from the west and southwest strengthen and
mixing takes place.

The atmosphere in eastern NY is a little more stable than in
central NY because of the light north to southeast low level
flow, so we will just keep watching the trends as the storms
move east. The positions of the pseudo warm front, any thermal
pre frontal trough and the cold front tomorrow could make for a
complicated severe weather potential. Just minor adjustments to
sky cover, temperatures and the rain chances through this
evening.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A surface boundary is draped across central parts of the
forecast area. North of this boundary, lots of cloud cover is in
place, along with temps in the 60s to mid 70s and dewpoints
mainly in the 60s as well. South of the boundary, there are more
breaks of sun, with temps well into the 80s and dewpoints
around 70 F as well. This front has been fairly stationary and
stalled through the day, but may start lifting northward as a
warm front by this evening into tonight.

Within the warm sector, a broken line of convection has been
impacting areas from the mid Hudson Valley across the southern
Taconics and into NW CT. Most of this activity has been sub-
severe, but has been producing brief gusty winds, heavy
downpours and frequent lightning. There have been some signs of
hail aloft from time to time, but the warm and humid air mass in
place has likely melted a lot of hail before reaching the
surface.

Over the next few hours, the convection impacting our far
southeastern areas will be pushing into New England. CAMs
suggest that there should be a break in the activity behind
these storms. However, some additional showers and t-storms may
develop across central New York and the Southern Tier of NY for
this evening and spread into our area for the late evening hours
and/or first part of the overnight. With the loss of daytime
heating, instability will be waning and nocturnal cooling will
help allow a surface inversion to form. This should keep any of
this convection from being severe, but some downpours and
thunder can be expected with this elevated-convection. Outside
of this convection, some low level stratus and/or fog is
expected to develop thanks to the recent rainfall and humid low
levels in place.

Lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s across the region.
It will remain muggy and humid through the entire overnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday, any fog or low clouds should dissipate shortly after
sunrise. The frontal boundary that was over the area on Saturday
will have lifted northward as a warm front, putting our entire
area into the warm sector.  This will allow for a mostly sunny
morning and temps will rapidly warm up across the entire area.
Most areas will be reaching well into the 80s on Sunday, with
some low 90s in the Hudson Valley from the Capital Region on
southward. In addition, dewpoints will be well into the 70s
across much of the area. This will result in heat index values
reaching 95 to 100 degrees across the Capital Region, mid Hudson
Valley, southern Taconics and NW CT, where a Heat Advisory will
be in effect due to an increased risk of heat related illnesses.

With the warm and humid air mass in place, MLCAPE is expected to
increase to 1500-2500 J/kg across the entire area. As a strong
disturbance moves across the Great Lakes and a surface cold
front approaches from the west, 0-6 km bulk shear will be
increasing through day to about 30 to 40 kts by the afternoon
hours. With the warm front nearby, low level helicity will be
rather high as well, with 0-1 km values in the 100-200 m2/s2
according to the 12z SPC HREF, although the highest values of
shear/helicity may be just northeast of the area across VT/NH.

CAMs suggest that a few rounds of broken lines of convection
will be moving across the area during the afternoon and evening
hours. SPC has most of the area in a slight risk for severe
weather, with an enhanced risk across northeastern areas (closed
to the best shear/helicity). Damaging winds and heavy downpours
are the main threats, but hail and a tornado or two will be
possible as well.

Showers and thunderstorms will be winding down on Sunday night
as the frontal boundary crosses the area from west to east. This
will allow for a much cooler and less humid air mass to move
into the area for Monday. Temps will only be in the 70s on
Monday and dewpoints will be coming down through the day. There
still could be a few spotty showers on Monday with the upper
level trough overhead, but no strong storms are expected. Clouds
should finally be clearing out by Monday night with lows down
into the 50s for many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry weather is expected on Tuesday with high pressure in
control. With plenty of sun expected and temps aloft warming up,
temps will be above normal on Tuesday with highs well into the
80s.

By Wednesday, another cold front will be approaching the area.
It will be another hot and humid air mass ahead of the front, so
heat advisory criteria could be met in some valley areas with
highs into the low 90s. In addition, another round of showers
and t-storms will be possible ahead of the front for late in the
day and some strong storms will be possible once again.

Dry weather looks to return behind this front for the late week.
It will somewhat less humid and not as hot behind the front as
well, although temps may still wind up averaging above normal
with highs into the 80s. Overnight lows will be more tolerable
in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some intervals of low clouds around 1000 feet around KGFL will
hold through this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
in central NY will track into our region later this evening and
there are questions on the coverage when the showers and storms
enter eastern NY. Based on timing on radar, there are better
chances for thunderstorms at KALB, KPOU and KPSF. So including 1
hour of TEMPO for thunderstorms at those sites, while just
including VCSH at KGFL. The storms should end between 04Z-06Z,
then a mix of low clouds and possible fog at all TAF sites.

The intervals of low clouds will continue until around 11Z-12Z,
when VFR conditions return to all TAF sites. There will be
another chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon
but just scattered and including VCSH at all TAF sites in the
afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms could be strong to
severe but too early to specify timing and strength of
thunderstorms for Sunday.

Winds will be light from the northeast to east at less than 6 Kt
tonight. Winds become south at 10 to 15 Kt Sunday morning and
continue through the afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ064>066.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/NAS
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...NAS