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430
FXUS64 KAMA 190944
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
444 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
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Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, trending
closer to below normal at most locations late this weekend into
early next week.

An upper level storm system is expected to bring more showers and
thunderstorms to the area Friday afternoon into Sunday morning.
Some storms may become severe Saturday afternoon and evening across
the western half of the area, with damaging winds and large hail
the primary hazards.

Another upper level storm system may impact the region late Monday
night into Wednesday and could bring more precipitation.
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&&

.SHORT TERM ...
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(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

To keep it plain and simple, it`s still going to be flat out hot
across the Panhandles today and tomorrow. A few spots in the
eastern TX Panhandle could reach 100 degrees the next couple
days, along with Borger and Palo Duro Canyon. A majority of the
CWA will still feel the heat though, with temperatures 10-15
degrees above average for late September (mid to upper 90s). The
only area with near normal temperatures is the northwest where
highs should top out in the mid to upper 80s. Winds will be
notably lighter today, but breezy conditions look to return Friday
afternoon-evening.

The H500 high situated over the northern Plains of Mexico
responsible for our continued heat is also providing increased
flow aloft. This flow should remain more zonal, with less
favorable conditions for any precipitation chances today, although
some models think a few rogue showers or storms won`t be entirely
impossible along a stalled boundary this afternoon and evening.
This potential would be highest generally for the southeast Texas
Panhandle, but the odds of occurring are only ~10%.

Better shower/storm chances could return to portions of the area
Friday, when a subtle disturbance passes over the region ahead of
a potent closed upper low to the west. As the low approaches, high
pressure to the south will be displaced, allowing moisture
transport to take the long way round back to the southern high
plains. Spotty showers could exist across the far west Panhandles
as early as Friday morning, increasing in coverage and intensity
with help from the disturbance through the afternoon and evening
hours. Current hi-res projections indicate split thinking
regarding how far east this activity may spread. One source of
doubt lies in the potential for an outflow boundary to surge ahead
of convection as it moves off the higher terrain of eastern New
Mexico towards the Panhandles. Any outflow boundary could either
help to initiate more convection across the heart of the CWA as
indicated by the HRRR and RAP, or would choke off convection,
halting further eastward progression as indicated by several
other models. Regardless, both outcomes serve to say further north
and west is where the better rain chances exist. PWATs >1" would
suggest locally heavy rain is possible, but the axis of better
instability staying shunted into New Mexico would support weaker
convection and lighter amounts for the Panhandles.

Harrel
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

The aforementioned upper level low pressure system is expected to
be around central Arizona at by 12Z Saturday, then track northeast
into the Central Plains by late Sunday afternoon. This projected
track remains consistent when comparing model runs of 12 to 24 hours
ago. As this storm system approaches the area, the chance for showers
and thunderstorms is expected to increase from west to east during
the day on Saturday, continue into Saturday night before diminishing
and ending on Sunday as this storm system heads into the central
plains on a track north of the forecast area. Dry weather is foreseen
Sunday night through Monday evening. Medium range models are in
reasonably good agreement and accepted. In addition, a cold front
is expected to move across the area late Saturday night into
early Sunday morning.

There is the potential for some thunderstorms that develop Saturday
afternoon and evening to become severe, mainly across the western
half of the area, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. Favorable parameters for some storms to become severe are
sufficient moisture, more than enough deep layer shear along with
adequate lift from the approaching upper level low pressure system.
However, concern exists with respect to the extent and coverage
of morning development of showers and thunderstorms starting across
western sections and spreading eastward. This morning precipitation
coupled with associated cloud cover will dictate the degree of
atmospheric destabilization for Saturday afternoon and evening for
any renewed round of showers and storms and the corresponding threat
for a few storms to reach severe levels. This will be something to
monitor during the next couple days.

Another upper level storm system may impact the region late Monday
night through Wednesday and may result in the next threat of
precipitation for the forecast area. Medium range models are in
disagreement handling this possible storm system so confidence is
very low as to what may transpire this far out in time.

02
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the
period. Much lighter winds are in store, turning around the dial
through the period at 5-15 kts.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Amarillo TX                97  69  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
Beaver OK                  94  63  98  68 /   0   0  20  20
Boise City OK              87  59  90  61 /   0   0  30  20
Borger TX                 100  68 100  69 /   0   0  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              95  66  95  64 /   0   0  20  20
Canyon TX                  96  67  95  66 /  10  10  10  10
Clarendon TX               98  70  97  68 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 90  60  88  60 /   0   0  30  30
Guymon OK                  91  60  95  64 /   0   0  30  20
Hereford TX                97  67  95  65 /   0  10  10  10
Lipscomb TX                98  67  99  71 /   0   0  20  10
Pampa TX                   97  67  96  68 /   0  10  10  10
Shamrock TX               100  70  98  69 /  10  10   0   0
Wellington TX             101  71 100  70 /  10  10   0   0
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&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...38