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463
FXUS61 KBGM 190746
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
346 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected through the entire week. A break in
the heat may not come until the end of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

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345 AM Update:

Bermuda high pressure remains the dominant feature impacting the
weather in our region. Hot and humid conditions will continue
again today. There is a chance for a bit more cirrus spilling up
and over the ridge today and this may limit heating some, but
not enough to drop below heat advisory criteria in all urban
areas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible again
this afternoon, however, forecast soundings are showing a little
less instability than the past couple of days. Best chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be across the lake plain and
Finger Lakes Region (Mostly west of I81 corridor). Another warm
and muggy night is expected, with lows staying in the 70s for
much of the area.

Ridge starts to flatten out some on Thursday and some stronger
westerlies slide south out of Canada and into our region. Once
again, hot and humid conditions will prevail, however,
thunderstorms may be a little more intense and numerous than the
past several days. Strong low level lapse rates will exist with
max CAPE values likely nearing 2500 to 3000 J/kg. With the
stronger flow aloft moving in, 0-6 km bulk shear will increase
to around 20 to 25 knots, which should be enough to support some
organized convection. Locally damaging winds will be the main
threat. Also, PWATs will again be in the 99th percentile range
and short Corfidi vectors of less than 10 knots suggest heavy
down pours and back building thunderstorms will be possible,
with a threat for localized flash flooding
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
110 PM Update:

The short term period will feature more of the same weather; hot
and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms as multiple
waves move around the periphery of the dominating ridge. This
creates a bit of a challenging forecast for temperatures, as it
is possible that clouds from thunderstorms/convective debris may
hold back temperatures a bit in spots, yet also increase dew
points. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are
expected on Thursday, with perhaps slightly cooler temperatures
on Friday with a greater chance of seeing afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. With ample CAPE in place, some thunderstorms may
become strong to severe both days. Limited shear will be present
on Thursday, but shear increases a bit on Friday, especially
along and north of the NY Thruway corridor.

While the current heat advisory goes through Thursday, it is
possible that this may need to be extended to include Friday at
a later time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
110 PM Update:

Not much has changed in the long term period with more of the
same expected during the weekend (hot and humid with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon). By
Sunday, the ridge starts to finally break down, but with an
approaching shortwave and cold front, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will increase a bit Sunday and Sunday night. Then
temperatures cool down a bit for the beginning of next week, but
still remain a bit above normal. Depending on the timing of the
cold front, scattered showers and thunderstorms may linger into
Monday, before conditions dry out for Tuesday as high pressure
moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure and mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period.
There is a small chance ELM will see a brief period of fog this
morning, but confidence is too low to warrant putting into the
forecast. Also, isolated thunderstorms will pop up across the
region again this afternoon. These storms could bring brief IFR
conditions to any terminal today, but since storms will be so
isolated, confidence of occurrence is way to low to add to the
forecast at this time.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Spotty restrictions possible
in showers and thunderstorms, with probabilities increasing
slowly in the later part of the period.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MPK