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743
FXUS61 KBGM 231642
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1242 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers will move through Central New York and
Northeast Pennsylvania today, lasting through tonight.
Relatively active pattern continues this week with a chance of
rain showers every day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

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1230 PM Update...

Updated pops using a blend of NAM Nest, HRRR and the official
forecast to account for the latest changes in the models. Also
made manual tweaks to pops using radar imagery to show steady
showers over the south western portion of our area. Adjusted
temperatures and dew points as well using current observations,
otherwise remaining forecast is on track.

930 AM Update...

Rain showers have made it further along than anticipated,
therefore blended in some of the HRRR into the forecast to
extend showers into the eastern portion of the region. Otherwise
made tweaks to temperatures and dew points using current
observations. No other changes needed at this time.

705 AM Update...

No major updates to the near-term forecast. Adjusted
precipitation chances as rain showers move into the area from
the west.


340 AM Update...

A weak shortwave will bring rain showers across Central NY and
NE PA today and through tonight, with accompanying gusty
southeast winds. Showers will progress west to east, reaching
areas east of I-81 by late morning/early afternoon. Rainfall
amounts will likely stay under a quarter of an inch, but there
may be some brief, more intense rainfall with some showers.
Temperatures become more seasonable today, expected to be in the
high 50s to mid 60s. Overnight temperatures will be the same as
it has been the past few nights; mid to high 50s. Tuesday
temperatures increase slightly to the low to high 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
410 AM Update...

An increasingly amplified upper level pattern will take shape
through mid-week as a deep trough cuts off into a closed low
over the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday night, while an upper
level ridge axis extends across the east coast. We`ll be in
active and increasingly moist southwesterly flow aloft, with
several embedded disturbances bringing rounds of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Surface high pressure over New England
will continue to feed drier air in the low levels from the east
and northeast. This will keep precip chances highest across
areas west of I-81 before midnight Tuesday night, but thereafter
the moisture wins out, and high PoPs look to overspread the
area through Wednesday morning.

Showers will become more widely scattered with dry spells early
Wednesday, but will increase towards the afternoon and overnight
hours.

High temperatures will run a few degrees below normal Wednesday,
with highs mostly in the 60s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
410 AM Update...

Another complex blocking pattern takes shape for the end of the
week, with our cutoff low over the mid-Mississippi Valley, and
ridging off the southeast U.S. coast expected to determine the
eventual path of a potential tropical cyclone in the Gulf of
Mexico. But upper level ridging over the western U.S. looks to
build across the Upper Midwest, north of the closed low, with
the tropical system eventually phasing with the closed low. Some
showers will be departing the area Thursday, after which the
blocking pattern looks to keep our area dry through the weekend.
Caution is urged given the complex pattern and interactions at
play, but there`s fairly good model agreement in keeping precip
with the tropical system and closed upper low well to our
southwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As rain showers begin to move into the forecast area, conditions
begin to deteriorate. The majority of terminals have fallen into
MVFR/fuel alt categories, and the ones who haven`t yet (SYR and
RME), will follow soon as rain showers move in. Gusty
southeasterly winds will pick up through the morning as well.
After showers pass towards the evening hours, all terminals,
except SYR and RME, will remain at MVFR/fuel alt ceilings. ELM
will most likely fall into IFR as heavier showers move through,
and ceilings will stay IFR through the rest of the TAF period.

.Outlook...

Monday Night Through Tuesday...Restrictions possible with
showers.

Wednesday through Friday...Generally, unsettled with VFR
ceilings and occasional flight restrictions possible in passing
showers and a chance of thunderstorms each day.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...ES/JTC/KL
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...KL