-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
158
FXUS61 KBOX 142103
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
503 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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Dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue for
the weekend and into next week. Chances for rain comes mid to
late next week, but uncertainty remains high.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

High pres remains in control tonight as it builds south from
northern New Eng. This will provide dry weather, but will have to
monitor potential stratus and fog moving westward from the ocean.
There are mixed signals in the guidance regarding the extent of
stratus and fog so confidence is not high. Soundings do show very
shallow moisture near the ground below the inversion so we are
continuing increased cloud cover for areas of stratus overnight.
Lows will range through the 50s with light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Sunday...

Any stratus and fog should burn off by mid morning as shallow
moisture mixes out, leading to another day with lots of sunshine and
warm temps as deep later ridge builds across New Eng. However, low
level temps are a bit cooler across eastern New Eng as the surface
high pres builds to the east with persistent E flow. Highs will
range through the 70s (coolest eastern MA coast) with lower 80s in
the CT valley. It will also be a bit drier with dewpoints in the
50s.

Sunday night...

High pres will bring mostly clear skies and light to calm winds
leading to good radiational cooling. Lows will bottom out in the
lower 50s for much of the region, with some upper 40s in the colder
spots in eastern MA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

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Highlights

* Dry and quiet weather to start the week with a few more mild
  days along with cool nights. AM fog possible.

* Turning unsettled mid to perhaps late in the week.
  Considerable uncertainty to the exact track of a system off
  the coast of the Carolinas. This brings the next shot for
  showers and more seasonable temperatures.

Monday through Tuesday...

A highly amplified ridge axis will initially (Mon AM) be in
place from the Great Lakes region through New England into the
central Atlantic, while there is a disturbance just off the
Carolinas coastline. The ridge gradually builds offshore
beginning late on Mon, but especially on Tue. The disturbance
off the Carolinas coast will rotate inland into the Mid
Atlantic/OH Valley into Tue. High pressure builds overhead on
Mon before shifting offshore Mon night into Tue, but still
nudges into the region.

Dry and quiet weather anticipated through this timeframe with
high pressure continuing to dominate the weather. Big question
for both AMs will be the stratus/fog development. Given the
E to SE/S increase in moisture this should really amplify the
risk, especially on Tue. Think on Mon would most likely be
radiation fog. High temps both days ranging from the 70s to mid
80s.

Wednesday through Friday...

Ridge axis continues to shift further offshore, with a broad
trough/upper low overhead from the disturbance previously
mentioned. Overall not certain how things will evolve with this
feature with how north it traverses and if/when it dives further
south. At this point have fairly heavily leaned toward the
latest NBM guidance given the uncertainty.

This is likely the next opportunity for more widespread rain
showers. The big question is how far north/northeast does the
upper low lift and the moisture plume associated with it. There
are considerable differences amongst deterministic guidance at
this point with the GFS/GEM bringing the 1.5 to 2+ inch PWATs
overhead Wed into Thu, whereas the ECWMF keeps this moisture
locked more to the south of our region. Warm cloud layer depths
would be between 3-4.5 km, which would bring more warm rain
processes, though there appears to be little instability to work
with at this point. Both the NAEFS/EPS guidance showing a tight
PWAT gradient as well per the Situational Awareness Table, but
the elevated 1.5-2 STD anomalies generally remain to our south.
Can also see differences between ensemble systems where the GEFS
generally keeps any heavier precip to the south as opposed to
the GEPS/EPS. There are nil probs of 24 hr QPF AOA 1" for the
GEFS guidance through this timeframe for southern New England,
whereas the GEPS/EPS have low (10-30 percent) probs. Something
to keep an eye on in the coming days.

Given the prolonged easterly flow during this timeframe will see
our temps generally near to cooler than seasonable.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Through Tonight...Moderate confidence.

VFR into this evening, then confidence decreases regarding the
timing and extent of potential stratus and fog moving in from
the east. Due to uncertainty we have a period of sct-bkn IFR
cigs and patchy fog developing after 06z east of CT valley.

Sunday: High confidence.

Any sub-VFR conditions should improve to VFR 12-14z. toward VFR
conditions. Mainly E wind 5-10 kt.

Sunday night: High confidence.

Mainly VFR, but patchy late night IFR fog/stratus may develop
in the CT valley.

KBOS TAF...Decreasing confidence later tonight regarding
potential stratus and fog. We included a few hours of MVFR cigs
down to BKN010 after 06z. Sea-breeze returns by 14z Sun.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Mainly VFR. A period of stratus
is possible overnight but confidence is low so did not include
in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Chance SHRA.

Thursday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...

Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday night: High Confidence.

Tranquil boating conditions with winds, mostly E-SE, and seas below
SCA levels. Vsbys may be reduced in developing fog overnight.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas
of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KJC/BL
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BL
AVIATION...KJC/BL
MARINE...KJC/BL