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061
FXUS61 KBTV 191413
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1013 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry and warm weather will remain the theme. On Friday, a
backdoor front will shift southwest. It could produce a handful
of light showers, mainly over Vermont. Weather conditions will
become dry once again heading into next week, but with more
seasonable temperatures of 60s to lower 70s during the day and
lower 40s to lower 50s at night.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1012 AM EDT Thursday...No big changes for the 1030 am
update. Fog continues to thin out and lift from the valleys
where it settled overnight. Some high clouds still in place over
the region. Previous discussion follows.

The sun is rising over thinning high clouds and valley fog. The
weather map looks much the same as the last several days.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s once more
this afternoon and fall back into the 50s to lower 60s at night,
with a few spot 40s across some of our cool hollows with just a
bit of fog developing in favored locations.

We`re still on track for the backdoor front and a narrow tongue
of moisture to support isolated to locally scattered
precipitation Friday afternoon with marginal 100-250 J/kg
instability. Convection will be shallow and will struggle to
form cloud ice. So no thunder is present in the forecast.
Precipitation, if any, will wane with the sunset. Cooler
northeast flow will keep daytime high temperatures around the
mid 70s to near 80.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...Influence from the offshore low
will linger Friday night into Saturday with isolated to
scattered showers mainly for southern Vermont. A few sprinkles
will be possible across central Vermont Friday night and
Saturday afternoon, but no appreciable chance of meaningful
rainfall. More noticeably, the high temperatures Saturday will
trend back to seasonal averages in the low/mid 70s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 328 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure is highly favored to
return late Saturday through the beginning of next week with dry
conditions expected. However, with easterly surface flow
associated with the lingering offshore low, temperatures are not
expected to rebound. Highs in the mid/upper 60s to around 70
degrees are likely to persist through much of next week with
cooler lows mainly in the 40s.

By midweek, there are continued indications of a pattern shift
with an amplified low potentially riding up the backside of the
upper level ridge as early as Tuesday. Blended model guidance
shows a more progressive pattern trying to move the ridge.
However, blocking patterns are notoriously stubborn, so it
should take more time to beat down the upper ridge. Therefore,
edged the forecast more towards deterministic models which
better highlight the conceptual model of a slower onset of rain.
With a slower onset, jet energy will most likely exit northward
before a front can sweep through the North Country indicating a
weakening of surface features over time. Kept slight chances of
rain mainly Tuesday into Wednesday.
Ensemble/deterministic/blended guidance become aligned by
Wednesday night into late next week with another system moving
into the backside of the ridge. This system should have more
success in moving into the North Country, thus favored at least
scattered showers returning. It should be noted that model
guidance keeps the rex blocking pattern over eastern Canada, so
there is no guarantee that there couldn`t be a more westward
placement of this persistent feature that would keep conditions
drier and warmer over the North Country.
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&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Fog present at KEFK, KMSS, and KSLK is
starting to scatter out, but remains entrenched at KMPV.
Conditions will trend towards VFR about 13-14z with mainly high
clouds at or above 15000 ft and a few cumulus clouds this
afternoon. Winds today will trend north to northeasterly around
4 to 8 knots, and then become light and terrain driven after
sunset about 23z. Expect valley fog to develop again beyond 06z.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Haynes