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023
FXUS61 KCAR 170920
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
520 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will slide south of the region today into Tuesday
and remain to our south on Wednesday. A cold front will cross
the area Thursday followed by high pressure on Friday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure sliding to our south combined with a strong upper
level ridge building over the Mid-Atlantic region will push a
warm front into the area from the west today. An area of light
rain associated with overrunning as the warm front approaches
will cross the St. Lawrence Valley and then dissipate as it
moves into our highlands around midday. Some scattered light
showers may reach the highlands around midday or early
afternoon. From there, any leftover rain will taper off with
only a slight chance for a shower further east as the moisture
collapses under subsidence from the upper high. This will leave
most of our area mostly cloudy with only isolated showers today.
Increasingly humid air will begin to push into the area
following the warm front later today into tonight. Otherwise,
tonight will be partly cloudy and not as cool with lows in the
upper 50s to near 60 inland.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Very anomalous high pres alf will cont building over Nrn New Eng
and the Can Maritimes thru Tue, reaching max amplitude by Wed
Aftn at which tm, 500mb hts reach into the lower to mid 590s,
at this tm, something more typical of the desert SW. This
pattern is being driven by deep anomalous upper troughing ovr
the Wrn U.S.

The result of this pattern will be sharp warming with rising
dwpts on Tue. Models are not in agreement with the potential of
any shwr/tstms across far Nrn ptns of the FA later Tue Aftn into
Tue Ngt as a very weak upper lvl disturbance crosses ovr the
upper high as it is amplifying. The dtmnstc 00z ECMWF and to a
somewhat lesser xtnt the 00z CanGem keep the s/wv and any
shwr/tstm activity N of the FA, with the mid atmos already
becmg capped to allow much in the way of cnvctn durg this tm pd.
The 00z GFS and NAM are a little slower amplifying the upper
high durg this tm frame, allowing for some cnvctn clipping far
Nrn areas. For now, we compromised between these two model
camps and brought chc tstms to NW and far NE ptns of the FA
later Tue Aftn/Eve, but believe capping will likely win the
battle durg this tm frame.

In any event, any shwrs/tstms affecting Nrn ptns of the FA
should end late Tue Ngt. This will allow mstly to ptly sunny
skies on Wed when the upper high is strongest, definitely
capping shwrs/tstms. After very warm low temps and humid
conditions Tue Ngt, temps across the Rgn Wed will soar well
into the 90s ovr all inland low trrn lctns, with an aftn sea
breeze cooling the immediate Downeast coast. Downsloping winds
spcly ovr the N hlf of the FA will result in temps nearly
reaching and perhaps even exceeding values seen on this date in
2020. Alf, the upper ridge/high is sig stronger than Jun 19th
2020, but the air mass residence is somewhat in question, with
some of the continental drier trop air from the desert SW being
entrained by more humid Gulf of Mex tropical air. Subsequently,
925 temps max out at +27 deg C Wed Aftn, about a deg cooler than
Jun 19th 2020. However, xtra compression from a stronger upper
high could result in higher llvl lapse rates, allowing for
temps to reach and even exceed highs seen on Jun 19th 2020. The
First sig chk point on this potential will be high temps ovr E
Cntrl Ont Prov Tue Aftn.

Wed Ngt will be fair and very, very warm with Thu morn lows
likely being the warmest of record across the N, if it were not
for a cold frontal passage xpctd mid Aftn thru erly Eve Thu.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Longer range models begin to slowly weaken the upper high ovr
New Eng Wed Ngt into Thu. Still though, the High will remain
strong enough to slow the passage of a cold front from Cntrl Can
until the Aftn hrs for Nrn areas til erly Eve for Downeast
areas as a weak flat s/wv tops and suppresses the upper high ovr
Srn New Eng and the Mid Atlc states. High temps will be warmest
ovr Cntrl and Downeast areas where mid to upper 90s will again
be common, with high temps even hot nearly to the beaches of
Downeast Maine with with the sfc pres grad a little more off
shore. High temps ovr the N were also raised a couple of deg F
reflecting a slower cold frontal passage. Sct shwrs and tstms
will accompany the cold frontal passage, but with only modest
cooling alf CAPEs will likely be long and skinny, suggesting
lcly heavy downpours and some gusty winds with stronger tstms.

Shwrs and tstms will dissipate late Thu Ngt as the cold front
moves offshore across the Gulf of ME, with cooler temps by erly
Fri Morn for our FA. After msly fair and cooler temps Fri,
long range models vary on the weekend with some like the 00z GFS
keeping the region contd dry on Sat, why others bring shwrs with
possible aftn/eve tstms, while others like the 00z ECMWF keeping
Sat msly dry, holding off on any shwrs til Sun. Again, we took a
middle ground bringing a low chc of shwrs Sat and higher chc on
Sun.
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&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today and tonight with a
south wind around 5 to 10 kt today and less than 5 kt tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Tue - Fri...mainly VFR all TAF sites. Isold
late aftn/erly eve shwrs/tstms Nrn TAF sites Tue and Isold-sct
shwrs/tstms Thu Aftn and Erly Eve with brief MVFR clgs/vsbys.
Lgt winds.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will remain below SCA today and tonight
with light winds and seas over the offshore waters around 3 ft
today and 4 ft tonight. A bit of mist or light fog may begin to
move over the waters tonight as more humid air moves in.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Winds and wvs will cont to remain below SCA
thresholds thru these ptns of the fcst. Went with a blend of wv
model guidance for fcst wv hts. Wvs will be composed of two
spectral groups; a shorter 6-8sec pd group and a 10-12sec pd
swell group. The potential of oceanic fog increases for spcly
the outer waters Wed - Thu Eve as blyr dwpts increase well abv
water temps.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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Temperatures will soar under an anomalously upper level high
pressure system mid week, challenging record high temperatures
and record max minimum temperatures. Multiple days of record
breaking temperatures will lead to dangerous heat without a
chance for reprieve overnight.

June 19th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (96)96 in 2020
Bangor (96)95 in 1995
Millinocket (97)95 in 2020
Houlton (96)95 in 2020

June 20th Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (69)68 in 1970
Bangor (72)72 in 1931
Millinocket (73)69 in 1923
Houlton (71)67 in 1976

June 20th High Temperature Records:
(Forecast)

Caribou (92)            93 in 2020
Bangor (97)             95 in 2020
Millinocket (95)        96 in 2020
Houlton (94)            94 in 2020

All-time Record Highs:
(Forecast, Day)

Caribou (96 June 19)96 in June 2020
Bangor (97 June 20)104 in August 1935
Millinocket(97 June 19) 101 in June 1907
Houlton (96 June 19)99 August 1975

All-time Record Max Minimum Temperature Records:
(Forecast, Day)

Caribou (70 June 19)71 in July 2018
Bangor (72 June 20)77 in August 1949
Millinocket(73 June 20)80 in July 1912
Houlton (69 June 20)72 in August 2009
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Bloomer/VJN
Marine...Bloomer/VJN
Climate...VJN