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471
FXUS61 KCAR 250714
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
314 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today. Low pressure
will approach from the northwest tonight and Thursday and cross the
area Thursday night. The low will continue to our southeast on
Friday. High pressure will build down from the north over the
weekend into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Surface high pressure across the Maritimes continues to barely
hold on across Maine today with the 500mb ridge axis shifting
east into Nova Scotia. This means moisture will advect NE
through western New England ahead of a mid level warm front in
western New York but the moisture will extend well northeast of
the front. Surface winds will shift SE today and expecting
increasing cloud cover throughout the day but remaining a mainly
dry day. Those SE winds will generally be 5-15mph across the
area. Temperatures top out in the low to mid 60s today across
the area with the thickening cloud cover, cannot rule out upper
50s near the Quebec border & Moosehead region. This evening
after sunset expecting showers to develop in response to a weak
shortwave lifting NE ahead of the warm front. This will be the
first measurable rainfall in 16 days across the CWA. Showers
will increase from W to E throughout the overnight into the
morning as the vertically stacked low tracks E in Quebec.
Temperatures will fall back into the upper 40s to low 50s with
some patchy to areas of fog possible along with the increasing
boundary layer moisture.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Low pressure cascading southeastward over the east side of a steep
ridge in Central Canada will spread rain into the area from west to
east Thursday morning. High pressure over the Maritimes ridging
south into the Atlantic off the Mid-Atlantic coast will channel
moisture in from the southeast. Strong upper level dynamics
including divergence aloft ahead of the upper low dropping down from
Hudson Bay will support the lift and rainfall. Rain will continue
across the area Thursday afternoon as the low continues to slide in
from the northwest.

The low, both surface and aloft, will cross the region
Thursday night from northwest to southeast. Rain may diminish to
showers across southern parts of the area Thursday night, but
continue over the north supported by moisture wrapping back from the
east and a deformation field aloft.

Low pressure will continue to the southeast on Friday tracking to a
position south of Nova Scotia Friday afternoon. Showers and some
drizzle will linger over the area, mainly across the north on
Friday, from moisture wrapping in from the Maritimes behind the low.
Otherwise, Friday will be mostly cloudy, with some breaks of
sunshine possible in the afternoon as drier air begins to filter
down from the north.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Low pressure will continue away to the southeast, south of Nova
Scotia, Friday night as the ridging in Central Canada pushes east
supporting surface high pressure that will build down from the
north. This will bring partial clearing Friday night into Saturday
followed by a mostly sunny and milder Sunday.

High pressure will continue to build down across the area Monday
into Tuesday bringing a continuation of mild and dry weather. Highs
Sunday through early next week will generally be in the upper 60s to
near 70.

As mid-week approaches, the ridge over the Northeast may begin to
break down and move away to the east. This may allow a trough
crossing through Central Canada to push a frontal system east into
our area with a chance for showers Tuesday night or Wednesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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NEAR TERM: VFR turning VFR/MVFR today with lowering cigs. Light
and variable winds shifting SE 5-10kt today. Tonight, MVFR/IFR
with -SHRA likely and BR/FG. LIFR cigs/vsby possible. SE winds
5-10kt.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...IFR. Southeast wind.

Thursday night...IFR north, IFR improving to MVFR south. SE wind.

Friday...MVFR north. VFR south. NE wind.

Friday night...MVFR to VFR north. VFR south. N wind.

Saturday...VFR. N wind.

Saturday night...VFR. Possibly locally dropping to IFR in fog
northern valleys.

Sunday...VFR. SW to W wind.
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&&

.MARINE...
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NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA across the Coastal Waters
through tonight. E winds today will shift SE tonight. Seas 1-2ft
today across the eastern waters from Jones Ground to near the
Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay. Seas 2-4ft across the
western waters from Schoodic Point to Mt. Desert Rock and
including Clay Bank. Tonight the western waters will be 3-4ft
with eastern waters 1-2ft. Sea surface temperatures are
generally 54-57F from the Downeast coast out 25nm and east to
the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM: A few gusts to 25 kt out of the southeast are
possible Thursday evening ahead of low pressure and from the
north Saturday morning behind low pressure. Otherwise, wind and
seas should remain below SCA through late week into the weekend.
Rain may limit vsby Thursday into Thursday evening. Otherwise,
vsby should be good.
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&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Sinko/Bloomer
Marine...Sinko/Bloomer