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394
FXUS62 KCHS 260232
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1032 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic while a
weak cold front approaches the area. This front will likely
linger near the area through mid-week, followed by another
front towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Tonight: Isolated showers and thunderstorms can be seen
developing just south of the the I-26 corridor over the last
hour. MSAS observations depict a ribbon of llvl convergence
along this area with weak troughing inland. Additionally, upper
level water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave overhead
the CWA, in which weak lobes of vorticity/forcing aloft could
be helping to initiate convection within the area. It does not
take much for showers/storms to develop considering MLCAPE
values are still hovering around 2500-3000 J/kg. Thus, we will
likely see these showers and thunderstorms sink southward into
Colleton and western Charleston and perhaps Beaufort counties
over the next couple of hours. There seems to be mixed signals
for how long convection will continue through the night, as most
of the CAMS show quiet conditions through the night. For now
the forecast has been updated to reflect slight chance POPs to
continue through midnight along the area south of I-26, but this
could need to be extended. Otherwise, most areas will see dry
conditions. Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s inland to
around 80 degrees at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad troughing aloft will be present over the East Coast of the
U.S. Wednesday and persist through the work week. Similarly, at
the surface a trough will be present along the southeast
coastline on Wednesday. The coastal trough will slowly dissipate
towards the end of the week as high pressure builds in at the
surface from the east. Temperatures at 850 hPa will remain
anomalously warm through the week, with hot and humid conditions
expected each day. Heat index values are forecast to reach
around 103-106F inland, with a few coastal locations possibly
reaching 108F. At this juncture no Heat Advisory is planned,
however conditions will be borderline through the end of the
week. Each afternoon isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast, a typical summertime pattern with
pulse convection. PWATs will remain slightly elevated, around
1.6-1.7 inches with CAPE values forecast to reach around 1500
J/kg in the afternoon. Therefore, any thunderstorm could become
strong to marginally severe, with damaging wind gusts as the
main hazard.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A similar summertime pattern will prevail through the weekend
and into early next week as high pressure builds in aloft along
with coastal troughing at the surface. Isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day,
with hot and humid conditions. Head index values will likely
peak around 103-105F inland with some locations along the
coastline reaching 108F. Head Advisories may be required.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Mainly VFR conditions will persist through the
00Z Wednesday TAF period. Although isolated convection is
possible Wednesday afternoon/evening, which could impact the
terminals, we did not include any restrictions in the TAF at
this time due to little confidence in timing/duration.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions will be
possible at all terminals with afternoon showers and
thunderstorms into the weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: There are no concerns with a weak pressure gradient
across local waters overnight. Southerly winds up to 10-15 kt
early evening are expected to diminish to 5 to 10 kt overnight.
Seas will range between 2-3 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday: Generally tranquil marine conditions
are expected through the period. Winds will gradually back each
day and veer overnight, strongest along the coastline as the
afternoon sea breeze/overnight land breeze develops. Seas should
average 2 to 3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...