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435
FXUS62 KCHS 111447
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1047 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A stationary front will meander near or just off the coast
through the end of the week. High pressure will build in from
the north through the weekend, then shift east early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A slightly drier airmass will persist today as surface high
pressure continues to build from the north. Scattered cumulus
will develop, especially in southeast GA today. Temperatures
this afternoon are forecast to peak in the upper 80s across the
SC Lowcountry to the low 90s across SE GA.

Tonight, the forecast area is expected to remain between a broad
area of low pressure over FL and high pressure centered over middle
TN/KY. This pattern should result in light and variable winds and
thin cirrus through the overnight hours. Low temperatures should
generally range around 70 degrees.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An area of broad high pressure to our north will gradually build
into the area through the week while a stationary front meanders
just off the Southeast coast. This will result in a fairly decent
moisture gradient across the area with a relatively dry air mass
well inland and moisture-rich air streaming northeast over the
Florida Peninsula and into the Atlantic. A weak coastal trough will
develop along the stationary front Wednesday into Thursday,
potentially becoming more defined by Friday. Showers and
thunderstorms will largely be limited to the coastal waters in
proximity to the boundary and weak trough/low, but there should be
enough moisture and instability to generate at least isolated
convection along the coast each day. The general thinking is that
areas far inland will remain mostly rain-free, with coastal
southeast Georgia being the prime location for sustainable
convection (where the greatest moisture is located). However, there
are hints that weak shortwave energy will move in on Thursday,
potentially increasing convective coverage during the daytime. Any
convection that does develop should diminish later in the evening,
at least over land areas.

Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday and Thursday will
increase to the mid 90s Friday. Lows will range from the upper 60s
far inland to the lower 70s near the coast and mid 70s along the
beaches both Wednesday and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A deep layered ridge will shift across the Southeastern US and
prevail through early next week. Weak low pressure offshore should
move out into the Atlantic as high pressure builds in from the
north. However, there should be enough instability in place each day
to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when the sea breeze is active. Saturday
looks like the hottest day of the period based on the position of
the upper ridge axis just to the west. Highs could reach the upper
90s inland before dropping back down into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Ceiling restrictions expected to continue for much of the
morning at KSAV though conditions will steadily improve as the
stratocumulus bases rise.

Winds should begin the day from the north. However, a sea
breeze is expected to develop during the afternoon, drifting
over the terminals between 18-19Z. In the wake of the sea
breeze, winds should turn from the SE and increase to around 10
kts. Winds are forecast to weaken after sunset.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions expected; however,
isolated convection could bring brief flight restrictions mainly in
the afternoons.
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&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: Showers and thunderstorms should track NE of the
coastal waters early this morning. High pressure will gradually build
over the waters today, yielding north winds this morning. A sea
breeze should develop this afternoon, winds should turn from the SE
and increase to around 10 kts. Seas should remain between 2-3 ft
today. The marine zones are expected to remain between a broad area
of low pressure over FL and high pressure centered over middle TN/KY
tonight. Winds should favor a direction from the east, generally
around 10 kts. Seas should remain between 2-3 ft, some 4 ft seas are
possible across the outer GA waters late tonight.

Wednesday through Sunday: Broad high pressure to the north with a
weak area of low pressure to the south will result in winds
predominately out of the east-northeast through Friday. Low pressure
could become better defined in the coastal waters later this week or
this weekend causing winds to shift briefly out of the west. Wind
speeds will average 10-15 kt and seas 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL/NED
SHORT TERM...BRM
LONG TERM...BRM
AVIATION...BRM/NED
MARINE...BRM/NED