-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
934
FXUS61 KCLE 121813
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
213 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure over the region will continue to slowly move east
through Thursday. A cold front will cross the area on Thursday
night into Friday. High pressure will return to the region for
Friday and Saturday before moving east and allowing a warm front
across the area on Saturday night.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure across the region will allow for dry weather
tonight into Thursday. Clouds are falling apart this afternoon
with dry air and good mixing across the region. Cirrus from
convection in the Upper Midwest will move east toward the area
tonight, but the trends are that clouds may stay north and
therefore, the region may stay clear and decouple, allowing for
temperatures cooler than previously forecasted with
lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Clearing and warm advection
will allow for temperatures to soar on Thursday with a mix of
80s to lower 90s. A cold front will approach the region on
Thursday night and will allow for rain and storm chances. The
trend in the front is slower than previous forecast cycles and
the bulk of the rain may not enter the forecast area until
after Midnight. The slower progression of the system will also
hinder the strength of convection across the forecast area as
the area will become more stable and the best forcing and shear
may be well further west into Illinois/Indiana, where storms
will be likely to fire earlier in the evening and with some
severe potential. Given the conditional thermodynamic
environment, the Day 2 Marginal SPC Outlook for the Toledo Metro
remains valid and on the condition of storms getting going in
southern Lower Michigan and continuing southeast into the
forecast area late Thursday night.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The cold front will be slowly push southward early Friday
morning. There could be some lingering showers or isolated
thunder over eastern and central Ohio Friday morning before high
pressure builds in from the north. High temperatures will be
about 10 degrees cooler Friday afternoon in the middle 70s for
NWPA and NEOH and the lower 80s over NWOH. High pressure will
continue to build in right on top of northern Ohio and the
eastern Great Lakes region on Saturday with sunny skies and nice
weather. High temps on Saturday will range for the middle 70s
for NWPA/NEOH and low 80s again for NWOH.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The high pressure system will move off towards New England on
Sunday. We will see a return southerly flow begin later in the
weekend. Upper level heights will rise with a ridge moving in over
the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Temperatures at 850mb will increase to 18-
20C by Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will climb into the
middle 80s over NWPA and upper 80s for NEOH. Lower 90s will be
possible over NWOH by Sunday afternoon.

A large summertime ridge of high pressure will develop and build
over the eastern CONUS by early next week. The center of this upper
level ridge will be near the Carolinas by Monday. We will see 850mb
temperatures increase to 20-22C by Monday and Tuesday with the
potential for a little heatwave developing. Afternoon high
temperatures may be easily reach in the lower and middle 90s early
next week. Heat indices may approach the upper 90s to around 100
degrees. Given the heat building, increased humidity, and possible
interactions with afternoon lake breezes, there could be a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon Monday
through Wednesday. We kept the POPs around 20 percent during the
midday through early evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
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VFR conditions will be expected across the airspace through the
TAF period. Some mid-level clouds have reached KTOL but are
fading and will dissipate over the next hour or two. A lake
breeze has made it through KERI but will likely not make it to
KCLE and have northwest winds at KERI for the next 5-6 hours.
High pressure will continue east and southwest flow will
continue through the TAF period. Some cirrus clouds will enter
tonight and may continue into Thursday but conditions will favor
clear. Winds may pick up during the afternoon with gusts of 20
to 25 kt possible. The pressure gradient across the region will
largely prohibit a lake breeze on Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered showers and possible
storms on Thursday night into early Friday.
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&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will slowly shift eastward today and a light southerly
flow will return. Southwest winds of 10 knots or less are expected
today. A lake breeze will be possible late this afternoon and
evening given the weak offshore flow today. South to southwest winds
will increase on Thursday up to 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon
ahead of a cold front that will move through Thursday night. Winds
will shift from the north around 10 knots behind the front Friday.
High pressure will build into the region Friday and Saturday will a
light flow over the lake. A light south to southeast wind flow up to
10 knots will return on Sunday. No headlines are expected on the
lake at this time through the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Griffin