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669
FXUS63 KDDC 192302
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will gradually decrease in coverage for the
  remainder of Wednesday.

- Much below normal temperatures Wednesday.

- A rapid warming trend is expected Thursday, through this
  weekend, into early next week, with little if any chance of
  rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Dual pol storm total precipitation radar estimates are in the
4-7 inch range, on a widespread basis, from southern Ford
county, and southwest to the Oklahoma border, including Stevens,
Seward and Meade counties. Rainfall estimates peak near 12
inches across southeast Stevens county, southeast of Hugoton.
Radar depicted continued rain shower regeneration across these
highly saturated zones; as such flood warnings remain in effect,
with many roadways inundated. Airmass across SW KS is cloudy,
cool and overturned from previous convection, which will keep
any instability rebound limited in scope, to the 1000-1500 J/kg
range, at best, through afternoon. As such, any redevelopment of
strong convection, capable of additional heavy rainfall, is
expected to be limited in coverage. Also the risk for any storms
producing marginally severe wind/hail is very limited, and the
5% marginal wind/hail probability from SPC was removed as of
1630z. Will retain the flash flood watch for the southern
counties adjacent to Oklahoma through 6 pm, where additional
showers are probable, any of which will go directly to runoff in
such a saturated environment. Still, models depict subsidence
taking more control through evening, so the threat of additional
heavy rainfall in flooded impact areas is low. Temperatures
will struggle into the 70s this afternoon, given stratus, recent
rainfall, and light east wind components.

Tonight will be muggy and humid, given light SEly winds
maintaining moisture flux with dewpoints in the 60s, along with
standing water helping keep the lower boundary layer near
saturation through sunrise Thursday. Areas of fog or mist are
possible early Thursday, but opted to not include this in the
grids for now. Temperatures will be in the 60s sunrise
Thursday. Forcing for ascent appears weak, and grids are
necessarily low. Most locations will remain dry.

Much more typical June weather will return rapidly Thursday for
the first day of summer. Strong midlevel high pressure ridging
over the eastern U.S. Wednesday will expand westward onto the
plains Thursday, with rising 500 mb heights, climbing
over 590 dm. All models show strong warming at 850 mb, with a
net warming of about +5C, easily supporting afternoon
temperatures to bounce back to the 80s. Subsidence is even more
established Thursday, supporting a dry forecast. South winds
will increase noticeably, sustained near 20 mph, with gusts near
30 mph.

The warming trend will continue into the coming weekend, with
afternoon temperatures in the mid 90s Saturday. 12z GEFS
ensemble members still support a 30% probability of temperatures
over 100 across the favored Red Hills Saturday afternoon, but
wet topsoils and standing water from recent rains will slow this
warming process down somewhat.

The first heatwave of the summer season is becoming apparent
early next week, with 12z MEX/NBM guidance cranking out high
temperatures near/over 100 Monday and Tuesday. A strongly
subsident regime is forecast by late Monday, as a 596 dm upper
high establishes over Arizona/New Mexico. 12z GEFS probability
of 2m T > 100 is already near 90% across SW KS Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 559 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Low clouds will bring MVFR to IFR conditions across all TAF
sites besides the LBL TAF. These low clouds should hang around
through mid morning tomorrow before burning off Adam. Mostly
clear skies are expected by tomorrow evening. Winds will
generally be from the southeast and light tonight shifting to
more of a southerly direction and increasing in speed by late
morning. Wind gusts over 20 knots will be possible tomorrow
afternoon.
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&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner/Hovorka_42