-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
872
FXUS64 KEPZ 241127
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
527 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

We have started a stretch of warm and dry weather. High
temperature today through the weekend will be above average, with
high temperatures Friday, Saturday and Sunday near record high
values. We will see little chance for rain over the next seven
days. Summer is still trying to hold on a little longer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Not much to say about the forecast. While the eyes of the weather
world will be on Florida later this week, we will sit under a
strong area of upper level high pressure. The upper level ridge
begins to build into the region today and will continue over the
area through (at least) the start of next week. High temperature
today through Thursday will run 3 to 5 degrees above average. Then
as the ridge persists and gets a little stronger we will see high
temperatures for Friday and into the weekend running 7 to 10.
These highs will be near record highs for many places Friday
through Sunday. The latest El Paso has ever recorded a high
temperature of 100 degrees is September 16th, but we will be close
to the triple digit mark each day, Friday through Sunday. Right
now probabilistic forecasts show a slight chance (10 to 20%) that
El Paso will hit 100 each of those days. The upper level ridge
will keep our winds light and our skies mostly clear today through
Sunday. Right now it looks like Summer will be extending itself
into the start of October.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. As upper level high
pressure begin to build into the region today, we will have
generally light winds from the east with unlimited ceilings. For
tonight our winds will be light and variable with continued
unlimited ceilings.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Little fire weather concerns this week with little chance for
thunderstorms and our surface winds will stay generally light each
day. The only concern will be min RH`s. Min RH`s the next couple
of days will range from the mid to upper teens in the lowlands to
the 20`s in area mountains. But by the end of the week into next
weekend we will see lowland min RH`s near 10%, and min RH`s in
area mountains ranging from 15 to 25%. Ventilation rates will
range from fair to good over the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  68  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  58  83  56 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  62  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               88  58  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               66  43  67  44 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    88  60  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              83  58  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   91  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                90  61  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       90  68  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                90  60  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             92  62  91  60 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               83  60  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   91  63  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             88  63  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           88  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            88  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    91  58  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 90  63  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                87  60  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  78  47  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                78  47  78  48 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                 75  47  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  81  48  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                87  56  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                88  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             83  50  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   86  56  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    92  54  93  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               86  57  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  85  59  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   90  59  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  88  59  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           89  60  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               86  61  86  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice