-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
747
FXUS64 KEPZ 201156
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
556 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for
areas along and east of the Rio Grande this afternoon and evening.
It will be lightly breezy this afternoon with warm above normal
temperatures area wide. Dry conditions, breezy conditions and
cooler temperatures will occur this weekend. An uncertain weather
pattern will occur next week with a slight chance of rain showers
and a few thunderstorms possible from Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For today, a deepening Pacific low pressure system on west coast
has begun to pull up subtropical moisture out ahead of it over
New Mexico. The broad plume of moisture streaming into the area
is further west and more spreadout than previously forecast with
with rain chances now possible from the Rio Grande valley and
eastward. As the low approaches the area the moisuture plume will
become more concentrated and will start to drift more to the
east over the next 24 hours.

The moisture surge has already increased cloudiness over the
region with rain showers and a few thunderstorms expected to
develop for areas along and east of the Rio Grande as the day
progresses. The best chance for rain showers and thunderstorms
will be the Sacramento Mountains where rain chances are at 60
percent. Rain chances will drop to to 30 percent or less for
lowland areas mainly south and away from the mountains. Rain
chances will diminish the further west you go, eventually being
zero west of the river. Along with a chance of rain, some
breeziness in the afternoon and warm above normal temperatures
are expected to occur. Chances for rain will continue into tonight
for areas east of the Rio Grande but will gradually dimimish with
time as the plume of moisture exits the region to the east as the
Pacific low lifts out of the area to the northeast.

Conditions will turn dry and cooler on Saturday as the low moves
into the Four Corners area and eventually into the Central
Rockies. West flow along the southside of the Pacific will push
moisture out of the area and and bring in a cooler and drier air
mass to the area. Breezy to near windy conditions will occur area
wide on Saturday, but will diminish overnight. By Sunday the low
ill move into the Plains with dry conditions under a west flow
aloft continuing. Winds will not be as strong on Sunday. Weather
conditions for Monday are expected to be mostly dry with seasonal
temperatures with just the slightest chance for precipitation or
eastern areas by Monday afternoon.

The weather outlook for next week remains uncertain as forecast
models struggle to focus on a single solution to the development
and track of deep low pressure trough over a large part of the
country. Locally, two scenarios are possible, A mostly dry pattern
that has high pressure over the western part of the country
keeping the region dry and moisture free. The other scenario has
the trough developing into a closed low that drops down over the
the state and increases chances for rain each day next week. As a
result, the national model blend has begun to incorporate at
least a slight chance of precipitation each day next week. This is
an uncertain low confidence forecast that will keep the weather
outlook unsettled in the long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
develop today and tonight generally east of a KTCS-KLRU-KELP line.
Chances for TSRA at TAF sites is at around 10 percent, so not
mentioned in 12Z TAF`s. SHRA adn TSRA will increase further east
with numerous showers and scattered TSRA over the Sacramento Mtns
with low Ceilings obscurring mountain tops. TAF sites are expected
to remain VFR with ceilings at BKN-OVC 150-200 through to 12z
Saturday. Surface winds will be light and variable this morning,
becoming south southwest at 10 15 knots with higher gusts after
18Z.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Very warm temperatures with some breezy southwest winds will
happen again today, however increasing moisture will increase
minimum RH values into the 20 to 30 percent range as well as
increase cloudiness with showers and a few thunderstorms likely
for Sacramento Mountains this afternoon into this evening. Lower
elevations from the Rio Grande valley eastward will see between a
20 to 30 percent chance rain with a few thunderstorms. Further to
the west rain chances are less likely for the Gila and Bootheel
regions of Southwest New Mexico today and tonight. Rain if it
occurs will be light and spotty, except near thunderstorms where
higher amounts of rain are expected.

The region will dry out for the weekend as a Pacific low pressure
system pushes moisture to the east out of the region. Breezy to
near windy conditions will be possible. Cooler temperatures will
allow min RH values to remain above critical thresholds. Sunday
will be less breezy than Saturday. The weather pattern becomes
more uncertain next week with a possible return of moisture and a
slight chance rain. Best chances for rain will be for areas east
of the Rio Grande. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal values
and winds may not be as strong during the week.

Vent rates will be very good to excellent Today and Saturday but
will drop to fair to good for next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  73  93  63 /  20  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca            91  66  89  59 /  30  20  20  10
Las Cruces               94  66  89  56 /  10  20   0   0
Alamogordo               93  66  89  56 /  30  20  20   0
Cloudcroft               70  50  66  40 /  60  30  30   0
Truth or Consequences    92  63  85  53 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              84  54  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   94  61  88  51 /  10  10   0   0
Lordsburg                91  57  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       94  72  91  62 /  20  20   0   0
Dell City                96  68  93  59 /  30  30  10  10
Fort Hancock             99  71  95  62 /  30  20  10  10
Loma Linda               88  66  85  58 /  30  30  10   0
Fabens                   96  70  93  60 /  20  20  10   0
Santa Teresa             92  68  89  57 /  20  20   0   0
White Sands HQ           93  71  89  60 /  20  20  10   0
Jornada Range            92  66  88  54 /  20  20   0   0
Hatch                    94  65  89  53 /  10  20   0   0
Columbus                 93  65  89  56 /  10  10   0   0
Orogrande                91  66  88  55 /  30  30  10   0
Mayhill                  82  54  78  45 /  60  40  30   0
Mescalero                81  54  77  45 /  60  40  30   0
Timberon                 79  53  75  45 /  50  30  20   0
Winston                  84  51  77  43 /  10  10   0   0
Hillsboro                91  58  83  50 /  10  10   0   0
Spaceport                91  63  86  51 /  10  20  10   0
Lake Roberts             83  48  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   87  53  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    91  50  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               83  53  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  87  58  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
Animas                   91  57  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  91  58  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           91  56  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               84  54  79  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen