-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
336
FXUS64 KFWD 202151
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
451 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
Update:
The heat will continue through the weekend (as detailed in the
discussion below), with near record warm temperatures tonight and
Saturday.

The current forecast is in good shape and only minor hourly grid
adjustments are necessary at this time.


79

Previous Discussion:
/Through Saturday/

Anomalously warm temperatures will continue through Saturday as a
strong 592-593 dam ridge (approaching the 90th %tile of
climatology) remains anchored over the state of Texas. Expect
widespread afternoon highs in the 95-100 degree range this
afternoon. Persistent south-southwesterly flow has brought
elevated low-level moisture to the region marked by surface
dewpoints in the mid-60s to lower 70s. This will allow for heat
index values to tick upwards into the 100-105 degree range later
this afternoon across much of the region with a few locations
across North Texas exceeding 105 degrees (not widespread enough
for a Heat Advisory). Locations across the DFW Metroplex will
challenge record high low temperatures once again tonight with
temperatures expected to only fall into the mid- to upper 70s.
Temperatures elsewhere will fall into the lower 70s.

High clouds will increase in coverage tonight into Saturday ahead
of a storm system expected to shift over the Plains Sunday into
early next week. Another abnormally warm day is expected Saturday
with widespread temperatures in the mid- to upper 90s (7-12
degrees above-average for this time of year). Heat index values
will likely remain just below Heat Advisory criteria. Do take this
late summer heat seriously and take the proper precautions to
keep you and your loved ones safe from heat-related illnesses.

Langfeld
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/Issued 319 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

The ridge responsible for the recent hot streak will weaken late
this weekend and early next week as a shortwave trough moves
slowly east through the Plains. The trough will be accompanied by
a Pacific cold front, which will serve as a focus for scattered
showers and isolated storms as it pushes equally slowly southeast
through the forecast area. The front and associated convection
will be ongoing just northwest of the region on Sunday, and should
enter the northwest zones Sunday night. Precipitation will spread
slowly southeast with the front, reaching a line from Paris to
Dallas to Lampasas during the day Monday. Convection will weaken
Monday night as it moves through East and Central Texas due to the
loss of surface instability and the absence of ascent as the
shortwave accelerates off to the east.

The front will stall somewhere across our southern-most counties
Monday night/Tuesday as the shortwave makes its departure and a
second shortwave trough drops southeast along the front range.
Another round of showers and occasional thunderstorms will develop
along and north of the boundary late Tuesday as isentropic ascent
strengthens in advance of the second shortwave disturbance. At
this time, strongest lift and best rain and storm chances would
occur Tuesday night or Wednesday, as the shortwave transitions to
a closed low while turning east through the Southern Plains.
Precipitation will eventually exit to the east on Thursday as the
low lift northeast of the region.

Severe weather does not seem likely at this time in either the
early week or the mid week events based on limited instability and
modest shear, but a few strong storms may still occur. Whatever
the case, the majority of the region should receive measurable
rainfall over the first half of next week between the two systems.

The front, cloud cover and precipitation will work together to
keep conditions quite a bit cooler compared to this weekend.
Sunday should be our last hot day of the period with highs in the
90s, followed by near normal temperatures for the rest of the week
(lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s). Otherwise, mid range
guidance continues to indicate a possible tropical system in the
Gulf around the end of next week. What this system may do and
where it may go are uncertain at this time, but it will be a
feature we will keep an eye on as the end of the month draws near.

30
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Excellent flying weather will continue through Saturday with VFR
and south flow at or below 10 knots. Although some brief stratus
is possible again across Central Texas Saturday morning, it should
remain well south of Waco.

79
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  97  76  92  69 /   0   0   0   5  30
Waco                74  96  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Paris               73  96  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              75  97  73  93  65 /   0   0   0  10  30
McKinney            76  97  74  94  69 /   0   0   0   5  30
Dallas              78  98  75  94  71 /   0   0   0   5  30
Terrell             74  96  72  93  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           75  97  73  94  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              73  96  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       72  97  72  92  63 /   0   0   0  20  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$