-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
766
FXUS65 KGJT 120544
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1144 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier conditions move in today causing a downturn in activity.
  A quick shower or storms remains possible along the Divide and
  San Juans.

- Highs will jump nearly 15 degrees from seasonal June values
  Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.

- Active weather returns late week as the next system arrives
  Friday, along with some temperature relief.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

A ridge is starting to build over the region allowing northwest flow
to usher in dry air. Despite that isolated showers are possible
along the Divide south of I-70 this afternoon with locally strong
wind gusts being the main concern. Showers will dissipate around
sunset and quiet weather is expected overnight. As the ridge
continues to build temperatures will rise and therefore tomorrow we
see highs about 5 degrees warmer than today. This could result in
records for a few locations especially across the southern CWA. For
the most part conditions will remain dry. The models are hinting
that there may be isolated showers over the high terrain north of I-
70 in the afternoon. Impacts from these showers may be gusty
winds. On Thursday the ridge axis will still be overhead so
expect very little change to the high temperatures. A low
pressure making landfall in southern California will advect
moisture aloft, which may result in some cloud cover. This leads
to a decrease in confidence on the high temperature forecast.
As deeper moisture arrives from the south high-based showers
could start to form in the Four Corners region in the evening.
Overnight that moisture spreads further into the forecast area
so the chances for showers expands northward.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

By Friday morning the low will reach southern Arizona and then
arrive in the Four Corners region about 12 hours later. It will lift
northeast across the area as an open wave late Friday afternoon
before sliding east of the Divide on Saturday. This system will
bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms as we
experience moderate moisture advection and dynamic lift from the
shortwave itself. Showers will spread from south to north on Friday,
though we will likely see high-based activity as early as Thursday
night. With increased broad scale ascent and daytime heating some
stronger storms will develop Friday afternoon which could produce
heavier rainfall. Outside of that, a brief wetting rain will be the
more likely outcome for our lower elevations with gusty winds being
the primary concern from any convection. The good news is that the
uptick in clouds and showers as well as the passage of the trough
will drop temperatures back to below normal area-wide on Friday.

Showers taper off from west to east late Friday night as a
transitory ridge moves in behind the trough. Saturday will be mostly
dry as a result though diurnally-driven scattered storms can be
expected along the Divide Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will
climb back to above normal under the weak ridge with additional
warming occurring later in the weekend. This will be due to the
shift to southwest flow as a closed low drops into the Pacific
Northwest, encompassing the western CONUS in broad troughing aloft.
The low will continue to dive south on Monday, strengthening the
southwest gradient across the forecast area. No precipitation
chances on the horizon just yet so we`ll close out the long term
period with hot, dry and breezy weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Some lingering clouds will continue to lift and disperse through
the overnight hours giving way to mostly clear conditions.
Clouds will start forming in the early afternoon hours on
Wednesday, mainly over the higher terrain. The northern valleys
might see a bit more convection than other areas. Main concern
under and near any convection will be some gusty outflow winds.
Outside of that, breezy conditions will materialize with gusts
of 20 to 30 mph being common at TAF sites. VFR conditions
remain in place.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KJS
LONG TERM...TGJT
AVIATION...TGJT