Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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766 FXUS65 KGJT 120544 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1144 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier conditions move in today causing a downturn in activity. A quick shower or storms remains possible along the Divide and San Juans. - Highs will jump nearly 15 degrees from seasonal June values Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. - Active weather returns late week as the next system arrives Friday, along with some temperature relief. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A ridge is starting to build over the region allowing northwest flow to usher in dry air. Despite that isolated showers are possible along the Divide south of I-70 this afternoon with locally strong wind gusts being the main concern. Showers will dissipate around sunset and quiet weather is expected overnight. As the ridge continues to build temperatures will rise and therefore tomorrow we see highs about 5 degrees warmer than today. This could result in records for a few locations especially across the southern CWA. For the most part conditions will remain dry. The models are hinting that there may be isolated showers over the high terrain north of I- 70 in the afternoon. Impacts from these showers may be gusty winds. On Thursday the ridge axis will still be overhead so expect very little change to the high temperatures. A low pressure making landfall in southern California will advect moisture aloft, which may result in some cloud cover. This leads to a decrease in confidence on the high temperature forecast. As deeper moisture arrives from the south high-based showers could start to form in the Four Corners region in the evening. Overnight that moisture spreads further into the forecast area so the chances for showers expands northward. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 By Friday morning the low will reach southern Arizona and then arrive in the Four Corners region about 12 hours later. It will lift northeast across the area as an open wave late Friday afternoon before sliding east of the Divide on Saturday. This system will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms as we experience moderate moisture advection and dynamic lift from the shortwave itself. Showers will spread from south to north on Friday, though we will likely see high-based activity as early as Thursday night. With increased broad scale ascent and daytime heating some stronger storms will develop Friday afternoon which could produce heavier rainfall. Outside of that, a brief wetting rain will be the more likely outcome for our lower elevations with gusty winds being the primary concern from any convection. The good news is that the uptick in clouds and showers as well as the passage of the trough will drop temperatures back to below normal area-wide on Friday. Showers taper off from west to east late Friday night as a transitory ridge moves in behind the trough. Saturday will be mostly dry as a result though diurnally-driven scattered storms can be expected along the Divide Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will climb back to above normal under the weak ridge with additional warming occurring later in the weekend. This will be due to the shift to southwest flow as a closed low drops into the Pacific Northwest, encompassing the western CONUS in broad troughing aloft. The low will continue to dive south on Monday, strengthening the southwest gradient across the forecast area. No precipitation chances on the horizon just yet so we`ll close out the long term period with hot, dry and breezy weather. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 1133 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Some lingering clouds will continue to lift and disperse through the overnight hours giving way to mostly clear conditions. Clouds will start forming in the early afternoon hours on Wednesday, mainly over the higher terrain. The northern valleys might see a bit more convection than other areas. Main concern under and near any convection will be some gusty outflow winds. Outside of that, breezy conditions will materialize with gusts of 20 to 30 mph being common at TAF sites. VFR conditions remain in place.
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&& .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KJS LONG TERM...TGJT AVIATION...TGJT