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065
FXUS65 KGJT 312039
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
239 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development remains a
  threat each afternoon through early next week.

- Temperatures remain above normal this weekend into early next
  week...an expanding ridge aloft next week suggests
  temperatures are likely to climb even higher by midweek.

- The warmer temperatures means runoff will be well underway
  with most major stem rivers showing rises over the next
  several days.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

The tail end of the main trough moving across the Northern High
Plains is sweeping a batch of elevated moisture across the
region this afternoon. This is leading to a slight uptick in
convection and with limited CAPE available for stronger
updrafts...most of the activity so far has been quite weak.
That is not to say a rogue gust of 45+ mph can not be ruled out
through the sunset but for the most part it will be a struggle
to get much precipitation to the ground. Transitory ridging
works across the Intermountain West tonight and the Rockies
tomorrow turning the upper flow to the Southwest through the
day. This will drag in drier air and leave mainly just the
northern tier of our CWA under the gun for isolated storm
development in the afternoon. A few light showers may linger
through the overnight hours as a jet max and shearing wave work
through the flow but this will most likely just be some passing
ACCAS. Otherwise temperatures remain above normal by about 4 to
8 degrees tomorrow afternoon. This will begin a prolonged
stretch of well above normal temperatures which will continue to
work on the snowpack and lead to rising river levels well into
next week.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 239 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

A midlevel trough will pass overhead on Sunday, kicking out a shield
of clouds and perhaps some isolated showers over the mountains in
the afternoon. Flow will shift to the west Sunday night before the
next upper level trough digs into the Intermountain West on Monday.
This trough won`t dive far enough south to shift the zonal flow to
the southwest but there will be sufficient tightening of the
gradient to fuel breezy winds at the surface, particularly north of
I-70, Monday afternoon. The trough`s base will brush the area on
Monday night with isolated nocturnal showers possible before drier
air is advected into the area for Tuesday as flow shifts to the
northwest. A ridge of high pressure will build to the southwest from
midweek onwards as a strong upper level trough dominates the Midwest
states. While there are some early indications that moisture will
begin to trickle in underneath the ridge later in the week, overall
dry weather is expected to prevail through the period.

Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm as the overall synoptic
pattern stays quiet. Daytime highs will trend 4 to 8 degrees above
normal on Sunday before reaching at least 10 degrees above normal
area-wide for Thursday. Overnight lows will continue to run well
above normal through the period.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development
will occur through the mid evening hours as moisture and strong
heating combine. The main threat will be gusty outflow winds in
excess of 40 mph but the probability of occurrence at a TAF site
is less than 20 percent...so confidence low and only VCTS used
for now with the limited coverage of storms. Otherwise VFR will
be in control over the next 24 hours.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...TGJT