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358
FXUS62 KGSP 141758
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
158 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and weak cold front will track across the forecast area
overnight before a hot upper ridge builds into the region from the
west this weekend. The upper ridge will linger over the Southeast
through much of next week keeping the heat around. Isolated diurnal
ridgetop showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday,
with better chances across the mountains on Sunday and Monday. Drier
conditions are expected to return Tuesday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Current GOES-16 loop indicates deepening updrafts across the NC mtn
ridgetops, but not enuf to produce any precip. The upper vort lobe
crossing the area is weaker per the latest RAP compared to the
outlook yesterday and soundings show low-end sbCAPE as temps rise
abv normal levels conjoined with high sfc dewpts. Still expect some
showery development across the mtns this afternoon, but negative
large scale forcing assoc with deep subs and meager mlvl LRs will
curtail sigfnt tstm development, esp east where a downsloping
componenet helps dry out the sfc layer.

A weakly forced cold front will reach the NC mtns by midnight, but
not expecting much fanfare outside a increasing the chance for sct
showers as mlCIN increases. Expect the front to continue pushing
south of the FA Sat as stg hipres ridges in from the north and
northeast. This pattern will initiate a llvl e/ly component which
may develop upslope showers and couple general tstms across the
escarpment upslope regions by the afternoon. Otherwise, Sat looks
mostly dry with highs reaching arnd 90 F east of the mtns and mid to
upper 80s across the mtn valleys.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Key Messages:

1) Hot Conditions Continue through the Period

2) Diurnal Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Each Day in the
Mountains

As of 130 PM EDT Friday: Strong upper ridging will continue building
into the Southeast Saturday night, ending up centered over the
Carolinas Sunday into Monday night. At the sfc, high pressure will
gradually track eastward across the Northeast Saturday night before
pushing offshore into the western Atlantic on Sunday. The center of
the sfc high will linger in the western Atlantic while gradually
nudging eastward Sunday night into Monday night. The
southern/southwestern periphery of the sfc high will extend into the
Southeast through the period. Winds will gradually turn S/SE`ly on
Sunday, and will lingering through Monday, allowing for an influx of
Atlantic moisture. Thus, diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances are
expected to increase through the period. Have PoPs ranging from 25%-
40% across the mountains each afternoon. The severe threat looks to
remain low and mainly general thunderstorms are expected each day.
Lows each night will remain around 4-8 degrees above climo. Highs
will remain around 3-6 degrees above climo, with temps rebounding
into the upper 80s/lower 90s in the mountain valleys and east of the
mountains each afternoon.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Key Messages:

1) Hot Conditions Continue through the Period

2) Drier Conditions Return through the Period

As of 130 PM EDT Friday: The hot upper anticyclone will linger over
the East Coast through at least Thursday. The GFS and Canadian show
the anticyclone gradually breaking down Thursday night into Friday
while the ECMWF keeps the anticyclone intact. Regardless of how the
anticyclone evolves towards the end of the workweek, hot
temperatures in the upper 80s/lower 90s will continue in the
mountain valleys and east of the mountains through the period. The
sfc high in the western Atlantic will gradually sink southward
through the period, with the southwester/western periphery
continuing to extend into the Southeast. This will allow flow to
turn more E/ESE across the forecast area. Latest global model
guidance continues to generally agree that drier conditions can be
expected Tuesday through Friday. Thus, went with dry conditions
Tuesday into Wednesday area-wide, with PoPs capped to slight chance
(15%-24%) across the mountains Thursday afternoon and Friday
afternoon. Lows will remain around 3-5 degrees above climo, with
highs remaining around 3-6 degrees above climo through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conds across all TAF sites thru
the period. High pressure will continue to work in from the
northwest this afternoon and build east thru Sat. This will keep
winds aligned generally w/ly to nw/ly this evening with a shift
before daybreak to ne/ly to se/ly as ridging commences down the east
coast. Precip chances are confined to the mtns but remain too small
for a TAF mention. No great fog threat overnight as well, but the
mtn valleys have a some chance. Confidence in fog coverage is too
low to include a restriction at KAVL, however.

Outlook: Weak sfc high pressure will linger over the area into the
weekend, with minimal chances for convection and associated flight
restrictions. More moist, SLY flow returns early next week and will
likely bring some increase in shower and thunderstorm activity each
day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SBK