-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
633
FXUS62 KGSP 180559
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
159 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure atop the region from Tuesday through Thursday will
suppress any storms from developing until moisture returns on Friday
and into the weekend.  Expect the weekend to be quite hot.  A cold
front approaches from the north early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Key Messages:

1) Mountain valley fog may develop again overnight and into the
morning.

2) Fewer showers and thunderstorms and slightly less humid conditions
are expected today.

As of 1:25 AM EDT Tuesday...Once again, no major changes were
necessary.  Most locations are dry but for a handful of light
showers still ongoing west of I-26.  Dry elsewhere.

A large anticyclone will remain over the Carolinas through the
period keeping summer-like conditions around. Cumulus will con-
tinue to dissipate going forward, but upper cirrus will increase
in coverage. Upper clouds combined with continued S/SE`ly flow
will allow lows to bottom-out around 5 to 8 degrees above climo.
Winds will turn more ELY today leading to drier conditions. High
temps today will be similar to Monday and about 2to 4 degrees
above climo.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 105 AM EDT Tuesday: Expecting to make little change to the
going dry and warming forecast for Wednesday and Thursday.  The cwfa
remains progged to be within the southern periphery of strong NE
CONUS anticyclone to start off the period.  With the attendant sfc
ridge axis just north of the region, an easterly flow will be seen,
countering the subsidence from the upper ridge, leading to near
normal temperatures on Wednesday.  Large scale subsidence remains in
place through Thursday while the sfc/llvl easterly flow weakens
thanks to the southward sinking sfc ridge.  Based on this, maximum
temperatures will be a few deg F higher, perhaps hitting 90 in a few
Piedmont locations.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday: The positioning of the upper ridge axis is
progged to sink south to pretty much atop the cwfa to start off the
period and begin a slow weakening trend.  There should remain enough
large scale subsidence to keep the atmosphere capped despite
promoting further warming to about a category above climo.  Despite
ever so slowly falling upper heights atop the region, enough
subsidence should linger to aid in further warming with some
Piedmont locations hitting 95 deg f Saturday afternoon.  Diurnally
fired tstm cvrg should struggle to reach climo values, with the
better chances acrs the mountains Sat afternoon/evening. During the
latter half of the period, daily tstm chances should steadily
increase coincident with the slow influx of Atlantic moisture and at
least some mean flow, but at this point, no break from the above
normal temperatures.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue at all
terminals thru the 06z taf period. The only exception will likely
be at KAVL where there`s a decent chance for some patchy fog and
lower cigs this morning beginning around 09z. I have prevailing
MVFR visby and cigs with a TEMPO for IFR visby and cigs thru
roughly 13z. Expect any lingering fog to burn off and cigs to
sct by late morning. Otherwise, things should remain dry across
the area today except for some very isolated ridgetop convection,
which does not warrant a mention in any taf. Outside of the mtns,
winds will remain SELY thru the morning and then back to a more
ELY direction by the afternoon and pick up speed-wise. I also
included some low-end gusts at the Upstate terminals for the
aftn/evening. At KAVL, winds will be light to calm thru mid-
morning and pick up from the SE again by the afternoon with
some low-end gusts expected there as well.

Outlook: An expansive upper ridge will keep things mostly dry
with VFR conditions thru Friday. Mountain valley fog and/or low
stratus may develop each morning.
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&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/MPR
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JPT