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896
FXUS61 KGYX 111342
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
942 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Somewhat unsettled daytime weather is expected to continue
today into Wednesday as upper level low pressure lingers
overhead. Warmer and drier weather is expected Thursday with a
cold frontal passage possible Friday with more showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure moves in for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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930am Update...Earlier stratus deck is deteriorating (slower
over the northern CT Valley), with cu beginning to develop amid
daytime heating. ConvT values only in the upper 60s to around
70, so won`t take much heating to spur this activity given the
moisture in low and mid levels. RAP soundings have a warm layer
slowly rising through late morning and early afternoon, and this
will act as a little cap for what instability is generated
today. Think given morning hodographs verifying very weak shear,
any showers or storms today will quickly rain themselves out
before outflow triggers another nearby shower. Initialization
should be focused in the higher terrain, but this chain reaction
for forcing may trigger showers into the foothills or interior
as well. Overnight HRRR runs depict a seabreeze moving inland
early this afternoon, this will likely be accompanied by wind
shift and some breeze, and perhaps aid in lifting for additional
showers.

630am Update... Latest satellite imagery continues to show
varying amounts of clouds across the region with the least along
the coast as well as southern New Hampshire and the most across
the northern and western portions of the forecast area. This
may significant impact the forecast high temperatures from town
to town today. Minor changes to the temperatures and dew points
for the near term portion of the forecast.

The latest HREF solution continues to have maritime fog reaching
the Midcoast region tonight. Some stratus is beginning to form
well off the Downeast coast of Maine.

Prev Disc...
Plenty of moisture in the form of low clouds remain over
northern and western portions of the forecast area per most
recent satellite imagery and surface observations. The latest
HREF solution suggests this moisture will be stubborn to move
out of the region today with an upper level low remaining
overhead. A few scattered showers will be present in the
mountains this morning, and with daytime heating, they will
gradually expand to the coast in the afternoon.

There may be a thunderstorm or two over northern areas later
this afternoon into this evening. However, dynamics and
instability remain limited. Temperatures will climb into the 70s
for afternoon highs in most areas.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Any leftover showers will diminish after sunset this evening
under varying amounts of clouds. The HREF continues to indicate
the possibility of maritime fog coming in off the Gulf of Maine
and into the Midcoast region later tonight. Temperatures drop
into the upper 40s to lower 50s once again.

With a slow to depart upper level low pressure system remaining
over the region on Wednesday, expect similar conditions over the
region. Scattered showers will gradually expand from the
mountains to other areas during the afternoon hours. Patchy fog
may remain along and near the Midcoast region. Afternoon high
temperatures will be slightly warmer, mainly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overview: Mid to late week will feature a pattern change,
mainly noticeable by warmer temperatures and increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms Friday. A more seasonable weekend
sets up with drier conditions before another likely warmup into
early next week.

Details: On Wednesday, there is still some uncertainty on how
any showers and isolated thunderstorms plays out due to weak
instability and shear, but guidance QPF providing a good
footprint of showers. Believe the solution will be seeing how
CAMs entertain this environment. Current thinking is a lot of
this lift will be from convergence over the higher terrain or a
pop up shower or two outside of this region. These would be
short lived and rain themselves out, but outflow could set off
neighboring showers as well. Either way, kept the best chances
again over the higher terrain, with lesser chances across the
interior and coast. The chance of these locations seeing a
washout are low, and would expect cells to remain isolated amid
the cloudy sky.

Thursday, temperatures increase with warm front approaching
along the Quebec border. Timing and potency of this front is in
question, and could influence some precip during the day. More
interesting day of weather may be on Friday as low pressure
tracks just to the west. Warm temps will be ahead of this, with
NBM bringing some southern NH cities into the upper 80s to
around 90. Cold front should push across the warm sector in New
England with the chance for thunderstorms. Ensemble profiles, as
coarse as they are, do show decent deep shear. Still plenty of
variation in instability parameters, likely dependent on frontal
passage or perhaps upstream convection moving east into the
region. Closer to the axis of the low, some training showers or
storms will be possible, with a WPC Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall noted towards the NH/ME border with Quebec.

High pressure and more seasonable temps follow up for the
weekend. It looks pleasant as drier air moves down for a break
before another possible warm up to well above normal temps in
the extended next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...VFR conditions are expected today with the
exception of MVFR conditions in the mountains. There will be
widely scattered afternoon showers allowing for brief periods
of IFR conditions mostly in the mountains, but stray showers
will attempt to make the trip to the rest of the region. A
thunderstorm is possible in the north.

Patchy fog tonight with the marine layer and coastal fog possibly
reaching the Midcoast. This fog may continue into Wednesday
morning. Otherwise, a few scattered showers remain possible
once again, mainly across the north and mostly during the
afternoon hours.

Long Term...SHRA possible across the interior Wednesday evening,
and potentially Thursday as well. Locations may see overnight
valley fog development. Warm, moist air over the coastal waters
may create patches of low stratus or fog near coastal terminals
like RKD and PWM.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Relatively light west winds becoming south today
followed by southeast on Wednesday. Seas remain 2 to 3 feet.

Long Term...Seas should remain 2 to 3 ft through the period with
mainly southerly winds. A warm front may cross the waters
Thursday into Friday, with a cold front then passing the waters
Friday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Cannon/Cornwell
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...