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064
FXUS62 KILM 240034
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
834 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to prevail through mid week with generally low
rain chances. More unsettled weather is expected Thursday into
Friday as a tropical cyclone likely tracks nearby to the west.
Although exact impacts are unknown at this time, heavy rain,
gusty winds, tornadoes and coastal flooding are possible. Cooler
and drier high pressure should then return later in the weekend
and early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Quiet evening with just some lower clouds lingering over the
Lumberton area. Otherwise forecast on track for increasing
chances of a few showers inland, mainly I-95 corridor and west
toward morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level ridging axis to remain overhead through the period,
extending north from Florida. At the surface the ridge that had been
nosing in from the north retreats allowing for light winds to turn
more southerly. This results in some very weak isentropic upglide
that according to most guidance leads to some light rain especially
over inland zones starting very approx around midnight,
eventually spreading across most of the area. And while the
aforementioned locations are hard to argue with (especially
since we`re talking 30-40 POPs at most) some of the "heavier"
amounts progged up to a tenth seemed high and were undercut
some. Tomorrow`s highs similar to today but with a noticeable
increase in humidity due to the new wind direction.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*No significant impacts expected

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details:
Low to mid-level high pressure ridging should prevail
from the north and east with limited forcing for rainfall. Thus,
expect a mainly dry period with the best chances for limited
rainfall across inland areas. Of course this could change a bit,
especially starting later Wed night depending on the evolution
of low pressure across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tracking
northward, which is likely to be a hurricane as denoted by the
NHC. Temperatures should be above normal through the period with
highs generally in the mid 80s and lows near 70 inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
*No significant impacts expected through at least Thu
*Some wind/rain/tornado/surge impacts possible from a tropical
 cyclone moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico late week

Confidence:
*Moderate to High Thu
*Low to Moderate Thu night through Fri night
*Moderate Sat through Mon

Details:
High pressure to the northeast will be giving away to low
pressure approaching from the southwest, likely to be tropical
cyclone Helene, late Thu and/or Thu night into Fri and/or Fri night.
Although there is still some uncertainty in the storm`s
track/strength it appears as of now it will glance us by to the
west. However, some wind/rain/tornado/surge impacts are possible
across NE SC and SE NC so everyone is urged to stay tuned to the
latest forecasts through the week. After the storm passes to the
north should see high pressure build back in from the north later in
the weekend bringing cooler and drier conditions.

To get the latest on the tropics, including preparedness info, visit
our tropical page at: weather.gov/ilm/tropical.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Generally VFR today with very light easterly winds overnight
becoming southeast on Tuesday. Expect possible sub-VFR heading
toward daybreak with potential for low clouds, fog, and showers,
mainly after 10z. The showers should be confined to inland
terminals.


Extended Outlook... VFR conditions expected outside of predawn fog
and stratus. A tropical cyclone will likely pass near the area
Thursday night through Friday bringing a high chance for
restrictions and gusty winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...High pressure centered to our north will retreat
this period turning the flow more onshore and eventually south-
southeasterly. With speeds capped at 10 kt as this happens not
expecting much of a change in seas since the easterly swell will
remain the main wave.

Tuesday night through Saturday...High pressure to the north
will be shifting offshore later in the week with onshore winds
persisting. There is pretty good confidence through Thursday but
less thereafter as much will depend on the track/strength of
low pressure moving north from the Gulf of Mexico into the
Southeast U.S., which is expected to be tropical cyclone Helene
by the NHC. For now we will show increasing winds/seas as the
pressure gradient picks up with at least Small Craft Advisory
conditions starting as early as late Thu.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Mostly minor coastal flooding remains a threat for the next several
days, especially in NC. However, future tropical cyclone Helene
could bring additional coastal flooding later this week depending on
its track/strength as it moves northward from the Gulf of Mexico
through the region.

The beaches are currently expected to reach minor flooding levels
(advisory criteria) during the afternoon high tide Tuesday and
possibly Wednesday as well.

Beyond this afternoon`s moderate flooding along the Lower Cape Fear
River, minor flooding is expected to occur during each high tide
over the next several days due to continued upstream waters working
their way down the river combining with the high astronomical tides.
Coastal flooding along the Lower Cape Fear River will impact
Downtown Wilmington and possibly Brunswick County on the west side
of the river, especially during afternoon high tides.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...RJB/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...