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868
FXUS62 KILM 231758
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
158 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime diurnally driven convection expected today
and thru much of the upcoming work week. In addition, hot and
humid conditions to occur during the work-week that may require
heat advisories. Remnants of a tropical wave will move along the
Carolina Coasts today, enhancing the convection potential and
coverage across the area. A weak cold frontal passage Mon night
will also enhance the convection ahead of it. Some temporary
relief from the heat expected Tue.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Isolated showers over the area currently with scattered mid-
level cumulus, lower-level clouds at the coast. Updated aviation
discussion below.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Generally troffiness aloft will allow the remnants of a
tropical disturbance/wave move NE along the Carolina Coasts this
period. This will enhance the cloud cover and the diurnally
driven convection across the area with POPs in the 25 to 40
percent range across the ILM CWA today and holding onto a low
chance for the evening dependent on the status of the tropical
remnants. May need to carry a POP along the immediate coast into
the pre-dawn Mon hrs. Expect more cloud coverage then Sat,
combined with convection, this will likely hold down max temps a
bit lower than what occurred Sat. With the end result, combined
with RH, heat indices along with heat risk today to remain
below heat advisory issuance levels. Tonights lows will likely
see widespread 70s across the FA, with 80 degree readings not
out of the question along the immediate coast given active winds
off the ocean exhibiting 80+ degree SSTs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday will feature an uptick of convective coverage and
strength. The former will be due to height falls in northwest
flow around a trough developing in the Northeastern U.S. in
addition to a surface trough and front approaching from the NW.
The latter will be an increased depth of very steep low level
lapse rates generating what may end up being considerable
instability. Fortunately wind shear values appear too weak to
support any level of organization to the convection, but it may
be time to start considering the possibility of isolated
microbursts. Tuesday should then quiet back down as the lapse
rates steepen and the NW flow advects mid level dry air that
drops PW values from 2 inches to one inch as the mid level
trough pushes a front through Monday night. Monday afternoon
will require a heat advisory for part of the inland areas
whereas Tuesday`s lowered dewpoints will preclude one.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday`s moisture drop off  will be short-lived as the
weakening front lifts back to our north and dissipates. The
Piedmont trough will redevelop Wed as the afternoon turns quite
hot though dewpoints may preclude an advisory. This heat and
then increased humidity Thursday will likely require an advisory
for inland locales. A shortwave and surface trough impinge from
the NW on Thursday but model guidance is in pretty good
agreement that both are too weak to lead to appreciable rain
chances. The agreement in the next front isn`t as good and given
the antecedent ridge the farther north solutions seem more
plausible, likely continuing near advisory-worth heat and
humidity while convective coverage hovers around a fairly
seasonable 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Isolated showers expected to continue through the day with
perhaps a stray rumble of thunder. What`s out there is pretty
slow- moving but haven`t seen any solid restrictions yet. Cu is
around 5kft with lower level clouds near the coastal terminals
~1.5-3 kft. These are occasionally filling in to BKN but only
briefly. Have lower clouds sticking around a bit overnight but
coverage looks to be the issue. Otherwise should be mostly dry
with predominant VFR through the latter half of the TAF period
until rain chances pick up again towards Mon aftn.

Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and morning low
clouds/fog.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...The sfc pg will tighten today as the remnants
of a tropical wave/disturbance move along the Carolina Coasts.
Look for S to SW winds to increase to 15 to 20 kt during today
and continuing thru tonight, along with a few gusts to 25 kt
possible tonight. Seas 2 to 4 ft today increasing to 3 to 5 ft
tonight. Seas will be dominated by the relatively locally
produced southerly wave at 4+ second periods.

Monday through Thursday Night...Winds will be out of the
southwest on Monday before a nighttime frontal passage leads to
veering while winds and seas both decrease from their near-
advisory criteria. Flow starts backing again late Tuesday as the
front lifts back to the north again in a weakening state.
Southerly flow returns but with fairly light speeds. Swell
energy will largely stay to our east meaning the dominant wave
through most of the long term will be a shorter period wind
wave.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents possible for
the Brunswick County and Northern Horry County Beaches
for Mon with a gradually decreasing risk of rip currents
Tue and Wed for all county beaches.

For today, a strong south to north longshore current expected
across Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. This may need to
be expanded to other county beaches for Mon as modest SSW to SW
winds continue, possibly increasing ahead of an approaching
cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...LEW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...DCH/MBB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...