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114
FXUS64 KJAN 181449 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
949 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
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Issued at 934 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Widespread cloud coverage dominates the forecast area, with
embedded isolated showers associated with the system moving its
way out of the area to the north and west. Sporadic thunder
should not be ruled out especially along west-central MS today
but expect an overall humid and cooler day today with highs
hovering in the mid 80s. Surface winds will be light and easterly
throughout the period. Overall the forecast remains in line with
current trends and observations. /OAJ/86/
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Today and Tonight...High pressure at both the surface and aloft,
centered east of the region, will build west and into the forecast
area over the next 24 hours.  This will result in easterly to
southeasterly flow across the CWA, which in turn will begin bringing
in a slightly drier airmass.  This will also cause less coverage of
showers and storms this afternoon and evening, by forcing the best
rain chances over western portions of the area.

Skies today will remain mostly cloudy, but a few peaks of sun will
be seen across the area through the course of the day.  Highs will
range from the lower 80s to around 90.  For tonight, clouds will
remain a staple across the area as lows fall into the low and middle
70s. /19/

Wednesday into Thursday: The rather strong 595 dam mid level ridge
will have expanded from its origin over the mid-atlantic states
across much of the Mid MS Valley. This will result in east to
southeasterly winds that will keep a slightly drier airmass over the
area. Rain chances will mainly stay focused along our far southern
counties.

Friday-Monday: Ridging at the surface and aloft will help mitigate
rain chances as the more moist tropical airmass will be in place
further west southwest as the potential tropical disturbance
continues its track west through Mexico. Through the longterm period
we can expect to see seasonably warm temps with mid 90s high
temperatures expected through late week. It is also worth noting
there will also be a chance for triple digit temps as we transition
into the weekend. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Clouds will remain across the region through much of the 12Z
forecast period. Despite this, VFR flight categories will prevail
at all area TAF sites through tonight, with some isolated
convection possible through late this afternoon/early this
evening, namely at KHEZ. Winds will be from the east and increase
to between 8-10 knots by late morning, with a few gusts reaching
to around 20 knots possible at times. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Jackson       86  73  91  72 /  20   0   0   0
Meridian      88  72  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     85  72  91  72 /  40  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   88  72  91  72 /  30   0  10   0
Natchez       83  72  90  72 /  40  10  10   0
Greenville    89  73  91  73 /  40  10   0   0
Greenwood     87  73  91  72 /  20   0   0   0
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&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LP/KP/19