Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Graphics & Text |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
072 FXUS64 KJAN 250919 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 419 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 419 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Today and tonight: Oppressive heat and increased heat stress concerns will be the weather headlines of the day. Though the upper level ridge has begun to retreat westward, H7 ridging remains centered over the Deep South today, and a weak stationary front extends roughly along the AL/MS state line. All in all, conditions will be similar to yesterday, but this time without a band of morning clouds/precip disrupting early day insolation. Once again, any influence of drier air in east MS may only provide greater capacity for warming in those areas, and the triple digits will be attainable. Within the more moist airmass west of the weak front, isolated diurnal convection is probable again this afternoon, but it should mostly initiate well after heat indices have already begun to reach critical thresholds across most of the area. Forecast temps/dewpoints are yielding heat indices above 110F across much of the ArkLaMiss Delta area again today, and accordingly, the Heat Advisory has been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning in that area. Meanwhile, the Heat Advisory remains in effect for all other areas. Tonight may offer little heat relief, with temps in some of our northwestern areas potentially struggling to fall into the 70s. /DL/ Midweek through early next week (Wednesday-next Monday)... Mid-late week (Wednesday-Friday): Increased coverage of rain & storms will give way to decreased heat stress through late week. The synoptic pattern will consist of 594DM 500mb mean ridge over West TX & northern Mexico while deepening longwave trough/jet energy carving out east of the MS River Valley. This will drive a sfc front down from the northwest, helping provide increased convergence & high moisture pooling ahead of the boundary, well above 90th percentile, near the climatological maxima around 2.25 inches. As this front dives down, rain & storm chances should begin to convect just prior to midday, with coverage becoming more scattered-numerous by the aftn to evening hours. With seasonably warm highs in the low-mid 90s, heat stress will peak near 105F degrees, potentially exceeding it. However, confidence is lowered due to scattered to numerous shower & storm coverage expected, so kept just an areawide "Limited" in the HWO graphics for now. Will let later shifts evaluate if any areal upgrade or heat headlines are needed, but we could reach near criteria before midday prior to convective initiation. Storms will also have some flow for some organization, nearly 15-25kts in the 0- 2/0-3km & even through 6km, so the inherited "Marginal" from SPC looked good. Did expand southward, from northern Morehouse, West- East Carroll in LA & into Issaquena-Yazoo to Winston-Noxubee counties in MS. Damaging winds & quarter size hail are the main concerns. As the front dives southward, slightly less oppressive heat & humidity are expected Thursday, with seasonable highs in the low 90s & heat indices near 105F. Rain & storm chances will be confined mainly southeast of the Natchez Trace & especially into the Hwy 84 to I-59 corridors. Can`t rule out a few stronger storms in the south, but convective organization isn`t expected to be as much as a concern as Wednesday. 592DM 500mb ridge is progged to build eastward, shunting the best moisture & isolated to scattered rain & storm chances southeast of the Natchez Trace by late week. Heat will be on a gradual rise again, with HWO graphics likely needed again late week into the weekend. Holding off for now but will reassess with future forecast packages. Next weekend into early next week (Saturday-next Monday): 500mb ridge axis will be centered right across the Mid-South, building to nearly 595-598DM by late weekend. With WAA bringing thermal profiles into the upper teens to near 20 deg C @ 850mb & mid 20s deg C at 925mb, seasonably warm highs in the mid-upper 90s are again likely. This will bring another round of dangerous to potentially excessive heat into the weekend, so heat related outlooks & headlines will likely be needed as we get closer. Rain & storm coverage will mainly be confined southeast of the Natchez Trace, but a longwave trough/front moving through the Great Lakes could drive down a sfc boundary & increased convective potential into late weekend into early next week (i.e. Sunday into Monday). With some flow & potentially excessive heat around, some marginally severe storms can`t be ruled out this time. There isn`t a ton of support in the CSU machine learning probs, so will have to monitor this potential. /DC/
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF period. Isolated SHRA or TS are possible mainly during the Tue afternoon hours, which may result in localized brief categorical reductions. Winds will be light. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Jackson 97 76 94 74 / 20 20 60 50 Meridian 101 75 96 72 / 20 20 60 50 Vicksburg 99 77 94 74 / 20 20 50 50 Hattiesburg 99 76 94 75 / 20 20 60 40 Natchez 95 76 93 74 / 20 20 40 40 Greenville 99 79 95 74 / 20 20 60 50 Greenwood 99 78 94 73 / 20 20 60 50
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>042-047. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ028>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074. LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016. Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ023>026. AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ DL/DC