-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
863
FXUS62 KKEY 130251
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1051 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1021 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024
Similar to the past couple of days, the convergence zone over the
southeastern Gulf and South Florida sagged southward late this
afternoon, then combined with a fresh plume of tropical moisture
surging northward through west-central Cuba. The discrete cells
earlier in the evening included storm motions greater than 30
knots, and although we did not sample any severe gusts, surely
packed a punch. The torrential rainfall across South Florida this
afternoon pivoted into portions of the Upper Keys this evening
where gauge totals are now nearing 8", although rates are now
below an inch an hour. At the peak, the gauge near the 18-mile
Stretch/Card Sound Rd split measured 4.13" in one hour. Current
radar loops suggest a few less thunderstorms but nearly complete
coverage across the Keys. SPC`s low-level mesoanalyses products
suggest strong south-southwesterly confluence across the Keys.
Although we are getting worked over, the mean wind vector from
the SFC through 10 kft is southerly at 25 knots. Thus, the
tropical fire hose should continue to recharge the profile until
the low- level ridge axis can lift back to the north. The ridge
lift may not happen until later in the night.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 1021 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024
The pattern for the remainder the week will feature weak high
pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary
stalled over northern Florida. However, the main weather maker
will be a large cyclonic system centered over Central America.
Mainly moderate breezes and an extended period of unsettled
weather featuring thundery squalls will persist tonight through
Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually
starting Saturday. Breezes will freshen by Saturday night, with
moderate to fresh easterly breezes expected for late in the
weekend into early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1021 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024
Stratiform rains and embedded thunderstorms across the Keys will
lend to TEMPO MVFR CIGS/IFR VIS at the EYW and MTH terminals
into the overnight. Look for improved conditions at both terminals
by daybreak Thursday. Southerly crosswind gusts could breach 20
knots Thursday afternoon if the line of developing storms in the
southeastern Gulf become as mature as they have the past couple of
days.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Key West  78  88  78  87 /  70  70  70  70
Marathon  78  88  78  87 /  70  70  70  70
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....11

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