-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
167
FXUS62 KKEY 151408
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1008 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
Near surface breezes strengthened into light southeasterlies in
the early morning. Lingering outflow boundaries around Key West
just before sunrise provided a source of lift for early morning
rainfall as evidenced by light showers observed over EYW shortly
after sunrise. The 12Z radiosonde measured a precipitable water
right around the 75th percentile for the day. Environmental
moisture remaining below the 90th percentile does not mean a
reprieve from the muggy, Heat Advisory levels of heat. Satellite
derived PWAT will remain near 2 inches throughout the day. The
concern later in the afternoon is if a deep layer of dry air
located over the northern Gulf of Mexico will provide a source of
lift for showers and thunderstorms over the outer Gulf waters.
Overall, the extremely bizarre September continues to round out
the weekend.

Today, breezes will remain light southwesterlies with multiple
periods of variable conditions. Persistent southwesterlies
indicates a reverse cloud line along the Lower Keys will be a
forecast concern. However, the additional cloud cover suggests a
slight reprieve to the extremely warm temperatures and a possible
overnight low back into the, still very warm, lower 80s.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Florida Keys.
Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times
of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with
little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys. Other than these
minor coastal flooding hazards, are no watches, warnings, or
advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters.

From synopsis, light, and at times, variable breezes will
continue through Thursday across the Florida Keys coastal waters.
An upper level trough will amplify and slowly slide southward
towards the Florida Peninsula this. This will likely bring
elevated rain and thunder chances back to the Keys, although
confidence in the extended forecast is quite low.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024
While VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals for the TAF
period, moist low-levels coupled with light southwesterly flow will
support possible island cloud line formation. In addition, residual
boundaries from likely developing South Florida storms this
afternoon may shoot southward, promoting additional vicinity
showers.  Have elected to include a window of VCSH in the TAFs for
now, which will be amended as needed to include impacts to
visbilities and ceilings.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in Keys weather history, in 2023, the daily record high
temperature of 94F was last recorded at Key West International
Airport and Marathon International Airport. Temperatures records for
Key West and Marathon date back to 1872 and 1950 respectively.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
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&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AJP
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....BT

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