-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
476
FXUS62 KKEY 231417
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1017 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
KBYX radar shows isolated showers throughout the Keys, especially
over the marine area moving to the west at 5 to 10 knots. GOES 16
Visible satellite imagery shows mostly cumulus clouds with
stratocumulus associated with the showers. Temperatures along the
Island Chain are in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the
mid 70s. Weak high pressure remains in place at the surface across
the Eastern Seaboard with a developing tropical low pressure
system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As a result, marine
platforms are observing northeast to east breezes near 10 knots
with Island Chain communities observing 5 to 10 mph.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
The 12z morning sounding shows a very dry atmospheric profile from
approximately 900 mb to the top of the atmosphere with a shallow
moist layer present between 950 mb to 900 mb. The PWAT value
measured came in at 1.51 inches which is right at the 25%
percentile for the date. The CAPE value measured is actually quite
low compared to previous days coming in at 500 J/kg. Therefore,
expect mostly showers due to the dry air aloft and the showers
entraining this dry air weakening them and preventing them from
becoming thunderstorms. Due to this, no changes expected to the
ongoing forecast.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 1030 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
There are currently no watches, warnings or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle
easterly flow across the Keys coastal waters this afternoon will
steadily increase tonight and Tuesday, as high pressure builds
along the Eastern Seaboard, and a tropical low develops in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Heading through the middle and later
part of the week, the forecast will depend on the development and
movement of this low. At this time, we expect fresh to strong east
to southeast breezes to develop late Tuesday, with strong
southeast winds peaking Wednesday night into Thursday as the
tropical system moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The strongest winds and highest seas are expected over western
sections of the Keys waters. Mariners should continue to closely
monitor the latest forecast updates during the next few days.

.COASTAL FLOOD...
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all of the Keys
island chain, as above normal tides continue. Boaters can expect
less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the hours
around high tide.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While a
shower cannot be ruled out at either terminal today, high
uncertainty in exact timing and location of rain will keep mention
out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the
northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots becoming more easterly and
increasing to near 10 knots throughout the day.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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On this day in 1931, the daily record rainfall of 2.10" was
recorded in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back
to 1871.
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM

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