Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
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Issued by NWS Key West, FL
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --345 FXUS62 KKEY 221906 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 306 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Weather has remained mostly quiet through the afternoon, but the KBYX radar is picking up on a couple of showers to the south of Key West. Instead of one, steady cloud line forming, visible satellite shows multiple streamers extending off of the Lower Keys. These streamers seem to have a small area of convergence to the south of Key West, and this is likely where out little sprinkles are coming from. The lack of any large scale atmospheric features will keep the overall weather quiet tonight and into the start of the new work week. Similar to yesterday, there is still moisture confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere, but comparably drier air in the middle and upper levels. This should prevent any deep, meaningful convection from building. Light breezes will prevail out of the northeast to east, and will veer to the east and southeast by Tuesday. Eyes are still on the Yucatan area as we are waiting for some development of a tropical wave/low pressure system. There is still a lot of uncertainty related to the details such as where this wave goes, how strong it becomes, and what the specific impacts will be here at home. However, there is better agreement among models related to the overall pattern. It looks like the low pressure that may develop will pull in enhanced, deep moisture and elevated breezes, and this will make for a messy second half of the week. Residents and visitors in the Keys are encouraged to check back for the latest forecast updates through the upcoming week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Keys, and a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and Lower Keys, as above normal tides continue. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the hours around high tide. Light easterly flow across the Keys coastal waters tonight will continue to increase Monday through Tuesday, as high pressure builds along the Eastern Seaboard, and a tropical low slowly develops in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Heading through the middle and later part of the week, the forecast will depend on the potential development and movement of this low. At this time, we expect fresh to strong east to southeast breezes to develop late Tuesday, becoming southerly late in the week, with the strongest winds over western sections of the Keys waters. Mariners should continue to closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(18Z TAFS) Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Slight convergence just south of the Lower Keys has ignited some light shower activity near EYW therefore VCSH is included until this evening. Near surface winds are easterly and near 5 knots.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .CLIMATE... On this day in 1889, the daily record rainfall of 5.82" was recorded in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Key West 81 91 82 89 / 30 20 40 50 Marathon 81 91 81 89 / 30 20 40 50-- End Changed Discussion --&& .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest