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774
FXUS62 KKEY 230256
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1056 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

All in all it has been a rather quiet evening for the Florida
Keys. The surrounding coastal waters have been a different story.
First a remnant cloud line streamer came to life for a couple of
hours southwest of the Lower Keys. Nothing more came about this
activity other than some blinding downpours, though it did manage
to eek out an outflow boundary producing 20 knot gusts. Then as
the evening progressed we have been seeing showers and isolated
thunderstorms spill off the southwestern Mainland. This activity
has been moving into our waters the last couple of hours and looks
to continue for the next couple of hours at least. Initial
convection that spilled over into our area moved across portions
of the Lower Keys and gave up to a quick quarter to a half of inch
for mostly Big Pine Key and Bahia Honda. Otherwise, northeast
winds early in the period have quickly clocked around to the east
and even slightly south of east as high pressure settles in across
the Southeast US.

Recent radar activity is seeing an uptick between Cuba and Cay
Sal Bank. We will have to continue to monitor this activity as hi-
res CAMs seem to like this area for further development. In
addition, the CAMs show the island chain lighting up at some point
though they have waffled on when that would occur and for how
long. It may one of these situations where convection stays out
across the waters with the island chain in a narrow corridor where
it may be "drier". Tonight`s sounding show a PWat of 1.6 inches
which is just above the 25th percentile. This makes showers
unlikely for the Keys and therefore will leave low end chances for
now.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Light to gentle easterly flow across the Keys coastal
waters overnight will continue to increase Monday through
Tuesday, as high pressure builds along the Eastern Seaboard, and a
tropical low slowly develops in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Heading through the middle and later part of the week, the
forecast will depend on the potential development and movement of
this low. At this time, we expect fresh to strong east to
southeast breezes to develop late Tuesday, becoming southerly late
in the week, with the strongest winds over western sections of
the Keys waters. Mariners should continue to closely monitor the
latest forecast updates during the next several days.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1055 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across the island terminals. This may
be interrupted by a brief passing shower or isolated thunderstorm.
That being said, feel comfortable leaving out VCSH at this time as
most of the showers will straddle north and south of the airports.
Any mentions of SHRA will come will future amendments.
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&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for FLZ076.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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