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595
FXUS64 KLIX 192106
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
406 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Current radar shows scattered showers across the CWA. These showers
are moving relatively quickly at around 25kts towards the west due
to strong onshore flow north of Tropical Storm Alberto. Will
continue to see easterly moisture advection combined with daytime
heating to promote shallow convection through the rest of this
afternoon. Although showers will be brief, rainfall rates will be
fairly impressive with such a moisture rich column in place. In
addition, don`t be surprised to experience gusty winds 30-40 mph
and precip loading transfers stronger winds aloft down to the
surface. Loss of daytime heating will be the end of inland
convection with coastal showers expected overnight.

0A strengthening upper ridge, possibly reaching 600dm (that`s really
really high), centered over the Appalachian Mountains will spread
farther westward through the southeastern CONUS into tomorrow. This
will cause Alberto to track west into northern Mexico, therefore
removing some moisture content in our CWA. The other aspect of this
is subsidence from the ridge. So should see much less rainfall
activity in the northern half of the CWA Thursday into Friday. At
the same time, high temperatures will begin to increase closer to
normal with decreased rainfall and cloud coverage and then
surpassing climo with highs reaching mid/upper 90s late week to the
weekend.

MEFFER
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Saturday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Medium range models initially in decent agreement as we head through
the weekend and then begin to has some disagreements in the details.
That said the differences are subtle and overall suggest expect the
warmer muggy conditions to return with scattered afternoon
convection. NBM is on the warmer side compared to the MOS numbers
but is very close and given the possible setup not confident enough
drop temps from the NBM. One change was to increase the morning lows
at the typical warm spots this weekend around the lake.

As we kick the weekend off the ridge will continue to slowly
retrograde across the Lower MS and become centered over the 4
corners by early next work week. Over the weekend this should keep
rainfall potential on the low side with the best chance for any
afternoon storms south of the 10/12 corridor likely associated with
the seabreeze. Not anticipating the seabreeze making it that far
north Saturday given the LL winds will remain out of the east or
northeast but on Sunday there may be a slightly better chance of the
seabreeze getting north of I-12 east of I-55 with slightly stronger
southerly winds and up to h925. That said pops will still be in the
20 to 30% range for much of the area and with h925 temps hovering
around 25-26C highs will likely range from the lower 90s in
southwest MS to mid 90s most other locations. Sunday may be fairly
similar with the highs and with increasing LL moisture there is a
chance that the heat index values could jump up into the 100 to 108
range.

Early next week as the ridge continues to strengthen over the 4
corners with the ridge axis extending north into Canada the eastern
periphery will start to tighten up and could place the region back
under northwest to northerly flow. This would begin to favor
convection once again but likely occurring very late in the day.
This would also mean we would see the rather warm temps continue as
well. /CAB/
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Terminal conditions vary across the spectrum with most at VFR, but
RA and TS driving some lowered ceilings to MVFR or spotty/occasional
IFR. Rain should be clearing by late evening into overnight hours
leaving predominantly VFR, but could see isolated MVFR or IFR toward
sunrise. Winds remain elevated at all terminals but inland ones
should see a decent drop in wind speeds this evening and tonight.
However, don`t expect the typical summertime drastic drop in wind
speeds. Coastal terminals could see wind gusts to 25 to 30 knots
during the afternoon hours today with a slow but appreciable
decrease in speeds after around 06Z.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 402 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Strong easterly winds in response to pressure gradient created by
Alberto continue to impact the local coastal waters. Latest
observations still show 20 to 30 knot winds with higher gusts over
all marine areas other than the outer coastal zones. In those outer
waters that are closer to the storm, winds are 5 to 10 knots
stronger, hence the Gale Warning in effect there. Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for all other areas. These strong winds
will continue drive water into to tidal lakes as well as all other
eastern facing shores. No changes made to the current Coastal
Flood Advisory in place but did extend the Coastal Flood Warning
to include coastal Tangipahoa, Livingston, St Tammany and St John
Parishes. Recent observations in Pontchartrain and Maurepas show
that water is still steadily rising and now nearing 3 feet above
where they typically should be. With winds not expected to slack
off through the night, thinking those water levels will slowly
increase and justify the upgrade to the warning. Winds should be
at their peak and begin gradually relaxing with time later tonight
through Friday as Alberto moves into northern Mexico. Non-
impactful winds/seas expected through this weekend. This will help
the tidal lakes start their slow fall in elevated water heights.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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MCB  72  90  70  93 /  20  10   0  10
BTR  78  93  75  95 /  10  30   0  10
ASD  77  92  74  93 /  20  30  10  10
MSY  82  89  79  92 /  10  40  10  20
GPT  77  90  75  93 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  75  93  73  95 /  30  10  20  10
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&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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LA...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ068.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ056>060-064>070-
     076>078-080-087>090.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ058-070-076-
     078-080-082-084-086.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ060-
     066>069-077-087.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-577.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ570-572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ570-
     572-575.

MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086>088.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 4 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ086.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ087-088.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-577.

     Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ572-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ572-
     575.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFER
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...MEFFER
MARINE...MEFFER