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820
FXUS64 KLZK 171837 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

After several days of unsettled weather courtesy of Francine`s
remnant low, improving conditions are expected through the short term
period. However, patchy dense fog has developed or is expected to
develop across parts of the CWA, mainly over northern and east
central sections where the heaviest rain was observed over the past
few days. As such a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9 AM
this morning.

Otherwise, moisture will continue to linger across mainly southern
Arkansas as what is left of Francine finally exits the region. Some
of the short term guidance is trying to squeeze out a few showers
but decided not to place any precipitation in the grids/forecast at
this time. Guidance is consistent in moving upper level ridging over
the region through the period for overall warm and dry conditions.

Once what fog is out there burns off and skies clear, high temps
will warm back up to above seasonal averages today and Wednesday
with readings in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will dip into the lower
to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A flip-flop weather-wise from the below average temperatures and
multiple days of wet weather that we have seen over the past several
days across the Natural State awaits in the long-term forecast
period from the middle of the week into early next week.

The main features that will drive this flip-flop that will coerce
temperatures in the realm of 5 to 10 degrees above average will be
upper lvl ridging that will be positioned over the state and remain
throughout the period. At the sfc, an area of localized high
pressure will aid in keeping weather conditions fair overall.

An upper lvl closed low and attendant trof will approach over the
Southern Plains region of the CONUS, but this feature is expected to
eject quickly northward of the CWA. However, the proximity of this
feature will introduce low POPs into the forecast going into the
weekend for the northwestern half of the state; additionally, any
precipitation will be isolated, if any does occur. The trend of
these low POPs will continue into early next week, but chances
overall will be low and any location that does see precipitation
will not see much at all. Hence my flip-flop metaphor as now we are
completely doing a 180 with predominately dry conditions and above
average temperatures the main story in the long-term forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Few clouds will be noted in much of northeast Arkansas this
afternoon, with broken/overcast conditions across the south/west due
to low clouds at 4000 to 6000 feet. Some lower cumulus may create
brief MVFR conditions in places early. Clouds will thin out
overnight, with areas of fog developing. This will create MVFR/IFR
conditions in places. Fog will dissipate Wednesday morning, and VFR
conditions will return. A light wind will vary from northeast to
southeast.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     85  61  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         85  65  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       83  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    87  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  88  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     87  66  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      85  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  85  60  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        85  60  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     86  64  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   86  64  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         87  62  87  63 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      86  63  86  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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None.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...46