471
ACUS11 KWNS 221952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221951
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Areas affected...Southeast NY...CT...RI...central MA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221951Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable
of wind damage will maximize and become focused over a mesoscale
area over the next 2-3 hours (mainly prior to 23 UTC/7 pm EDT).
Because of the small spatiotemporal window of the severe risk area,
a severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...An organized linear band of strong to severe
thunderstorms will likely continue to move east-southeastward to the
southern New England coast over the next several hours.  Echo top
trends over the past 2 hours has shown tops increase from 40 kft to
50 kft.  This convective trend is an indication that 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE (buoyancy) has become realized by the stronger storms over
CT.  The moderately strong westerly 2-6 km flow (30 kt) will support
updraft/cold pool organization as this activity moves through a very
moist airmass (low to mid 70s surface dewpoints).  Brief/transient
rotation with updrafts encountering relatively backed flow
(south-southeasterly at the surface) may aid in mesoscyclonic
rotation and perhaps hail potential (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter)
with discrete storms ahead of the line.  Otherwise, wind damage
potential due to strong-severe gusts (50-65 mph) will be the primary
risk with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   41287250 41017342 41137388 41497413 41787393 41967282
            42347197 42117151 41917115 41587113 41427118 41287250