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379
FXUS63 KMKX 150855
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
355 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Chance for thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday.

- Hot weather is anticipated Sunday into the middle of the work
  week. Heat indices in the middle 90s are likely Sunday and
  Tuesday and heat index values in the upper 90s are likely on
  Monday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
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Issued 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Today and Tonight:

High pressure over Ontario will bring light southeast winds. Cirrus
associated with convection over the plains will continue to spread
into southern Wisconsin. Showers over Minnesota and Iowa associated
with a weak shortwave within mid level ridging should dissipate as
they move into southern Wisconsin an encounter drier air.

There is a 20% chance for thunderstorms this evening north and west
of Madison as a deeper shortwave approaches the region. Storm
chances expand across southern Wisconsin overnight as the shortwave
moves through and increase to over 75% north and west of Madison.
Areas south and east of Madison may stay dry. A 40 knot low level
jet will shift into western Wisconsin during this time bringing a
surge of moisture. Some storms may be on the strong side as
instability builds to 1500 MU CAPE early Sunday morning with 20 to
30 knots of shear.

Marquardt
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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Issued 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Sunday through Tuesday

Some showers may linger into Sunday morning before ridging builds
back in. Can`t rule out a thunderstorm during the afternoon, which
the HRRR shows, but we are capped around 850 mb. Much warmer and
more humid temperatures are expected for the early part of next
week. A strong mid level ridge sets up over the southeast U.S.
bringing as low pressure develops over the central plains. This
brings strong and moist southerly flow into the region. Highs will
be around 90 with heat index values in the 90s. Some areas may see
values near 100 on Monday.

There is a 30% chance of storms on Monday and Tuesday. Many areas
will be dry. The better chances will be to our northwest where a
strong low level jet surges into a frontal boundary draped
across Minnesota into northern Wisconsin.

Wednesday through Friday

Warm temperatures will continue but likely will not be as warm as
earlier in the week. The frontal boundary will push southward
through the state sometime early in the period bringing a better
chance for rain and thunderstorms.

Marquardt
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Issued 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some scattered
clouds around 2000 ft may develop this afternoon. There is a chance
of thunderstorms after 5Z / midnight. South winds will increase
overnight with gusts around 25 knots.

Marquardt
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued 351 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

South winds increase on Sunday with building waves. The northern
half of the open waters will see some gusts around 30 knots.

Issued a small craft advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 pm Sunday.
Strongest winds will be during the day, then waves will linger into
the evening.

Fog may develop for Sunday night and Monday and may linger through
the early part of the week with the humid air mass over the lake.
South winds will increase again Monday night through Tuesday night.
Gusts in the open waters may reach 30 knots.

Marquardt
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&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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