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114
FXUS63 KMPX 140506
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1206 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying out this evening with a beautiful Friday forecast.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms likely Saturday with
locally heavy rainfall possible.

- An intense heat wave will build across the eastern third of the
country next week with the Upper Midwest on its western  periphery.
This will mean periods of hot and humid conditions and multiple
rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Within the most recent radar scans, the shower activity as well as
the more abundant cloud cover has finally reached Iowa and will
continue to make its way southeast. Dry and quiet conditions will
prevail for the next 36 hours or so as upper-level ridging and
surface high pressure fill in from our west. This evening will
be a good one to go out and enjoy with lows tonight reaching low
to mid 50s under mostly clear skies. Friday will be a beautiful
day despite a few afternoon clouds and highs nearing the low
80s. By Friday night, a shortwave over the CO Rockies will eject
towards the northern plains. Showers and thunderstorms will
begin to develop over southwestern MN around sunrise and then
extend north and eastward in coverage by Saturday
afternoon/evening. PWATs exceeding 1.75" as well as a +40kt LLJ
will allow for some potentially heavy rainfall across central
and southern Minnesota and parts of western WI. The forecasted
QPF validates the slight risk for excessive rainfall in those
areas issued by the WPC.

Saturday`s disturbance will quickly vacate to the east by Sunday.
Ridging will intensify over the eastern CONUS and an h85
thermal ridge over the west-central CONUS will shift east. This
will make conditions feel rather soupy with high temperatures in
the upper 80/low 90s, dew points in the 70s, and heat indices
in the mid to upper 90s. Another shortwave enters western MN
Sunday afternoon and tries to create some modest elevated
instability of 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE as well as steep lapse rates
of 8 deg C/km. However the caveat here is forecast soundings
showing at least 5kt deep capping inversion. So in the off
chance that the shortwave does find a miracle to break the cap,
maintained the inclusion of chc PoPs through Sunday night.

Monday into next week features an elongating troughing pattern
upstream over the western CONUS. This will cause multiple shortwaves
to eject over the northern plains with several additional chances of
precip. At the same time, ridging will continue its grasp over
the eastern CONUS and place MN/WI on the western periphery of
the thermal ridge with a strong LLJ continuing to advect warm
moist air from the south. Therefore warm and humid conditions
will last at least through Wednesday before some relief returns
Thursday with cold front reduces temps to the low 80s. As for
rainfall amounts, there are still some inconsistencies in QPF
totals due to frontal placement within the guidance. But with
noticeable high PWATs and a mainted moisture rich LLJ, any
rainfall that does occurs will have an increased likelihood of
being heavy which increases the concern with flooding through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1158 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions continue this morning with no weather-related
concerns other than perhaps some patchy fog. Northwest winds
have decreased since yesterday evening and will remain light
throughout the rest of the period, eventually becoming
east/southeast this evening. High level clouds will begin to
invade from the west heading into tonight, ahead of our next
approaching system tomorrow.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...RA/TSRA/MVFR likely, IFR possible. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
SUN...Mainly VFR. Slight chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
MON...MVFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind S at 05-10 kts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff/Dunleavy
AVIATION...BED