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206
FXUS61 KPHI 150033
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
833 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses our area late this afternoon into tonight.
High pressure begins to build in later tonight and then it remains
in place over the region through the weekend. A warm front lifts
through Monday, but surface high pressure looks to control our
weather through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled as the last of
the strong thunderstorms has pushed offshore of New Jersey.
Showers will remain across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey,
Delaware, and Maryland through this evening as the pre-frontal
through shifts offshore and the lead short wave continues to
move across the area.

Later this evening and through the early overnight hours, a
cold front will push into the area from the west, while a short
wave/vorticity impulse aloft shift across the area. This is
expected to lead to another round of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Instability will be much weaker now that we have
lost daytime heating, so the threat for strong to sever
thunderstorms is minimal overnight.

Eventually drier air will move into the area, and although the
drier air looks to lag a bit, it is expected to advect
southeastward by daybreak resulting in a clearing sky. Overnight
low temperatures are forecast to be in the 60s, with even some
mid/upper 50s across the northern areas.

As we go through Saturday, a very nice start to the weekend is
expected as some cyclonic flow aloft is in place as the trough axis
shifts to our east. Surface high pressure will be building down from
the northwest, however a tighter pressure gradient will be in place
and therefore a northerly breeze is expected. Dew points will be on
the decrease and this combined with some cooler temperatures will
result in a refreshing feel to the air.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will dominate the short term forecast resulting in dry
conditions throughout the back half of the weekend.

Nighttime lows Saturday night are forecast to dip into the mid 50s
to right around 60. There will be plenty of sunshine to go around on
Sunday. Those who do not enjoy the heat will want to try and get
outside as temperatures will be marginally cooler in the low- mid
80s across most of the region. Upper 70s are expected near the shore
and at higher elevations.

A sea-breeze will likely develop on Sunday given the weak synoptic
flow in the forecast. This sea-breeze could penetrate well in-land
by the late afternoon into evening hours. Lows are forecast for the
upper 50s to low 60s Sunday Night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Summary...Few changes to the long term. Hot but mainly dry forecast.

The synoptic pattern and evolution is nearly certain for the long
term. An upper-level ridge over the eastern CONUS Monday will build
to the north with time. By the Wednesday time frame, the strong
ridge will look to be centered directly over the northeastern CONUS
and will likely stay in place for quite a bit. The ensembles suggest
it is not until around the time frame of Friday that the ridge and
its associated axis will begin to break down a bit.

Overall, heights will only build over the region with time Monday
onwards. We could see heights of 594-600 dam over us for Wednesday.
At the surface level, high pressure centered offshore Monday will
move eastward with time as a warm front lifts over the region. Even
still, surface high pressure looks to largely control the region
through the duration of the term. Though some rounds of shortwave
energy may pester the region for much of the week, any precipitation
development should be largely suppressed given the pattern.

We are mainly looking at a dry forecast into Thursday night with
temperatures potentially getting warming each day. High temperatures
may touch the low 90s for Monday, but widespread highs in the 90s
should be anticipated at this point for Tuesday, Wednesday,
Thursday, and Friday. It is still a little too early to really
discuss any potential for heat headlines at this point, but the
potential will only grow with time as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through tonight.
There will be a chance of showers, possibly an isolated
thunderstorms later this evening and overnight; between
03z-07z. We did mention VCTS, but confidence in Sub-VFR
conditions is low at this time, so we kept the forecast VFR.
There is also an indication that some low clouds may develop
later tonight, especially south and east of KPHL, before
clearing takes place overnight into daybreak. North to northeast
wind 5-10 kntos or less. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...VFR. North to northwest winds 5-10 knots, increasing
to 10-15 knots with gusts 15 to 20 knots, diminishing some
later in the afternoon and into the evening. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR with no significant weather.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Through Saturday, the conditions are anticipated to remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria. Southerly winds will turn northerly
by later tonight in the wake of a cold front and continue Saturday.
Some showers and thunderstorms move through this evening and
a few storms could produce locally gusty winds.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. A
few gusts around 20 kts possible on Monday. Fair weather.

Rip Currents...

Saturday, north to northeast winds will increase to 10-15
mph with gusts around 20 mph. With 3-4 foot waves offshore and
an 8 second period, this will lead to 2-3 foot waves in the
surf zone. As a result, there is a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for New Jersey and
Delaware Beaches

With ligher winds and smaller waves on Sunday, there will be a
LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
everywhere.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
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&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...Gorse/Robertson/Staarmann
SHORT TERM...AKL/Wunderlin
LONG TERM...AKL/Wunderlin
AVIATION...AKL/Gorse/Robertson
MARINE...AKL/Gorse