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241
FXUS66 KSGX 172041
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
141 PM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A deeper marine layer will continue through the middle of the week
with near to slightly below average temperatures. A trough of low
pressure across the West will be replaced with a strengthening
ridge here in Southern California. This will
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A trough over the western part of the country will continue
pleasant weather through Thursday. Gusty west winds are occurring
this afternoon across the deserts with wind gusts 25-35 MPH, which
will continue into the evening hours. South and southwest winds
are present at the coast as a coastal eddy spins offshore. Partial
clearing near the coast this afternoon may not last very long, as
clouds will push back inland over the next few hours. Latest
guidance shows most areas west of the mountains see more clouds
through the early Tuesday morning hours.

Minimal change in the weather will occur Tuesday through Thursday
with a steady deeper marine layer the trough holds across the
western states. There will also be less in the way of wind across
the mountains and deserts. We can expect plentiful 70s and 80s
along and west of the mountains with highs in the 90s and low 100s
in the high and low deserts respectfully.

A 591 DM high in northern Mexico with push northward into our
region by Friday into the weekend. This will provide warmer
weather with temperatures 5 to locally 10 degrees above average
across the Inland Empire, mountains, and deserts, while the
shallower marine layer keeps the coastal areas moderated. Still
some uncertainty on how it will become but NBM output paints highs
peaking near 115 degrees in the low deserts and upper 80s and low
90s across higher elevations. Slight variations of these temps may
change in the coming days. Ensemble model guidance shows a large
ridge across the southern U.S. expanding into the desert southwest
by early next week, which would continue the hotter than normal
weather by this time.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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172021Z...Coast/Valleys...Mainly SCT low clouds with bases 1400-1800
ft MSL and tops to 2800 ft MSL including portions of the inland
valleys. Vis 3-6 SM where clouds near terrain. Low clouds locally
broken KSLI-KSBD but mainly sct after 17/22Z.

Low clouds redeveloping along the San Diego County coast 18/00 -
18/03Z and spreading inland and north overnight with bases around
1500-2000 ft MSL and tops to 2500 ft MSL. Confidence in 18/01Z
return of low clouds at KSAN per the TAF is moderate.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through this
evening followed by SCT clouds at/above 20,000 ft MSL tonight into
Tue morning. Gusty west winds continue across the mountains and
deserts, strongest this afternoon and evening when gusts 25-40 kt
are expected with isolated gusts 45-50 kt below the San Gorgonio
Pass. MOD-STG up/downdrafts over and east of the mountains through
this evening. Winds slowly weaken tonight into Tue morning.
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&&

.MARINE...
Northwest wind gusts up to 20 knots will be possible in the outer
waters this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, no hazardous
marine conditions are expected through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A combination of a west swell of around 5-6 feet/9-10 seconds and a
south swell of around 2 feet/17 seconds will bring surf of 3-6 feet
along with a high rip current risk through today. Swells and surf
will lower Tuesday. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect
through 7 PM this evening.

&&

.SKYWARN...
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Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
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&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 PM PDT this evening for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Small