-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
729
FXUS64 KSJT 210822
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
322 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

A moist and unstable airmass has moved into west central Texas in
the wake of the tropical-based rain shield that moved through the
area this morning.  CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg along with
dewpoints in the low 70s should result in some scattered
thunderstorms developing this afternoon, mainly from the Concho
Valley southward.  Given the tropical-based nature of these storms,
they are not expected to become severe, but could produce some
locally heavy downpours due to PWAT values around 2 inches.

As Alberto pushes through central Mexico and continues to degenerate
into a remnant low this evening, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will diminish and become confined to Crockett County
and the western Concho Valley Thursday night.  A more stable airmass
should take over by early Friday morning as a broad upper ridge,
located over the Ohio Valley, starts to build into west central
Texas.  This stable pattern should keep most of west central Texas
dry and sunny with decreasing clouds for the rest of Friday. High
temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than the past couple of
days given more sunshine. The one exception is in southern Crockett
County, where some lingering moisture from the remnants of Alberto
may result in some diurnally-driven showers or thunderstorms in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

This weekend will be dry for our area with temperatures trending
hotter. This to occur as an upper level ridge shifts from the lower
Mississippi Valley west across Texas. Should have some low cloud
development over our southern and southeastern counties early
Saturday and Sunday mornings, but otherwise skies will be mostly
sunny. Expect highs Saturday to range from the lower 90s in the
Heartland and our southern counties, to mid/upper 90s farther
north and west in the Big Country and Concho Valley. Highs Sunday
will range from the mid 90s in our southern counties/Heartland to
the upper 90s/around 100 in the Big Country and Concho Valley.

The upper ridge will continue to shift west, and will be centered
over Arizona/New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday. This will be our
dominant weather influence. With this setup, a strong 850 mb thermal
ridge to our west will expand east and result in highs ranging from
95-100 degrees in our southern/southeastern counties, to 100-105 in
much of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Expect overnight lows to
be mostly in the mid to upper 70s Tuesday through Thursday.

With our area progged to be on the eastern side of the
aforementioned ridge aloft next week, medium range models show some
indication for the trailing portion of a cold front to move south
into our area Wednesday or Wednesday night before washing out.
Depending on the strength and proximity of the ridge, the Big
Country may have a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms with
the weak front.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected across most terminals with the
exception of KABI, which will likely remain VFR through the
remainder of the TAF period. These lower ceilings are expected to
lift by 18Z and make way for VFR conditions to persist through
tonight. Winds will remain light and variable through later this
morning before increasing slightly out of the southeast this
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Abilene     90  71  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  93  71  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    89  71  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   89  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  91  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       88  69  92  69 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       86  70  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...TP