-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
009
FXUS62 KTAE 160530
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
130 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 919 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A quiet but warm night is in store for us thanks to surface high
pressure presiding over a mostly dry airmass by June standards.
Lingering convection is possible off the Nature Coast this evening.
Forecast low temperatures are widespread mid 70s - several degrees
above normal. Meanwhile, an inverted trough is apparent over the
SE Gulf. This feature is poised to drift NW/NNW overnight and
advect tropical moisture our way. As a result, expect scattered
showers/thunderstorms to spread from south to north early tomorrow
morning, then shift inland through the afternoon. The seabreeze
should provide an additional focus for convection. Sunday`s peak
PoP forecast is therefore in the chance to likely category.

Given that the 12Z HREF depicts Precipitable Water ranging from 1.8-
2+ inches, there is potential for heavy rainfall capable of
localized flooding from training cells. In addition, strong/gusty
winds from water-loading microbursts are possible, for which decent
signals exist via the SREF Wet Microburst Severity Index for
Tallahassee/Apalachicola/Panama City. However, with minimal wind
shear and recent dryness, there are no official risk outlooks by
WPC/SPC. Otherwise, look for another hot/muggy day characterized
by highs in the low/mid 90s (~98-102 heat indices).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Both upper level and surface high pressure will generally hold
somewhere over the mid Atlantic seaboard. To our southwest, in the
Gulf near the Bay of Campeche, low pressure will be deepening.
This will lead to a tighter pressure gradient developing over our
Gulf waters and bring increasing winds. Gulf moisture will surge
in over the waters and perhaps clipper our FL Panhandle counties,
while the drier air from the high pressure system influences the
region else where. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Monday afternoon and evening over, but the drier air from the
high should supress chances to about 15-30 percent over SW GA and
FL Big Bend. West of these regions, PWATs may be a touch higher in
SE AL and the W FL Panhandle where storm development is slightly
more favorable and in the 20-40% range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the start of the long term, upper level high pressure is
forecast to be centered over the Carolinas, and it will lift to the
north and east through the week. Dry conditions will prevail through
the long term. However, we are watching an area of low pressure in
the Bay of Campeche that has been highlighted by the NHC. With that
low pressure to our southwest, and high pressure to our northeast,
we will be between the pressure gradient, which will lead to breezy
easterly winds over the region for the middle part of next week.
PWATs are forecast to be around 1.5" and high pressure will still be
influencing our weather, so showers may form, but not expecting too
much in the way of thunderstorms to develop. PoPs for the long term
range from 20%-40%, with better chances closer to the coast.
Temperatures for the long term will have highs in the mid-90s and
lows in the mid-70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions through the period. The main concern will be
chances for SHRA with embedded TSRA and timing on Monday.
Highest confidence is at ECP and TLH, where TEMPO groups are
included. CAMS indicate activity getting close enough to
DHN and ECP to justify VCTS. There is uncertainty in timing
TSRA, and it may have to be adjusted (possibly earlier) in
subsequent TAF issuances. Easterly winds tonight become more
southerly at DHN, ECP, and TLH on Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Gentle to moderate southeast breezes will continue into Sunday.
An unseasonable round of fresh to strong easterly breezes will get
underway on Monday and continue through Wednesday, as pressure
gradients tighten between strong high pressure off the U.S. Mid-
Atlantic coast and a deepening area of tropical low pressure over
the Bay of Campeche. Seas will build in response to this and may
lead to a few rounds of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Showers
and storms will be possible each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A surge of tropical moisture spreading inland from the Gulf
yields scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday capable of
wetting rains. Axis of precipitation then shifts to the seabreeze
zone and areas west to NW Monday-Tuesday. In addition, brisk
easterly winds usher in high afternoon dispersions as the pressure
gradient tightens across parts of the region. Otherwise, expect
continued hot/muggy conditions with high temperatures in the 90s
and peak heat indices up to the low 100s.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will remain possible
during the afternoon hours with the seabreeze. Heavy rainfall is
possible during these storms which could lead to localized flash
flooding. However, current river levels are good and are not
concerned with significant flooding for the next several days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee   93  74  94  74 /  60  20  30  10
Panama City   87  76  91  76 /  70  30  40  20
Dothan        94  73  92  73 /  50  20  30  10
Albany        96  73  94  72 /  20  20  20  10
Valdosta      96  72  94  73 /  40  20  20  10
Cross City    94  71  94  72 /  70  20  30  10
Apalachicola  85  78  88  79 /  70  40  40  20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ this morning
     through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery