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389
FXUS62 KTBW 160732
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
332 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

In the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure sliding into the
southeastern US today will hold in place through the first half
of the week as it gradually amplifies, bringing in drier air aloft
across the forecast area. At the surface, broad high pressure
over the eastern US will rotate into the Atlantic and hold in
place through midweek, with light southeast flow today, becoming
easterly and increasing Monday through at least Wednesday. While
the National Blend of Models is predicting numerous to widespread
storms today, scattered on Monday, then scattered to widespread
Tuesday and Wednesday, this is hard to reconcile with the drier
air aloft and easterly flow, so the PoP forecast was blended more
towards base MOS guidance through Wednesday.

By Thursday, the forecast becomes a bit more uncertain, with both
the GFS and ECMWF developing a tropical system over the Atlantic and
pushing it east into Florida Thursday or Thursday night. Considering
this system has yet to develop and that only a handful of the
global ensemble members are showing a system moving into Florida,
it`s hard to put too much confidence in this forecast or the exact
impacts. That said, at the very least in increase in moisture and
rain chances Thursday and Thursday night looks likely. Either
way, the system is expected to be out of the area by Friday, with
a return of easterly flow Friday and Saturday, and scattered to
numerous rain chances in the afternoon and early evening.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions should hold through at least the morning hours.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon and build
towards the west coast through the late afternoon and evening, with
the highest rain chances at area TAF sites expected after 21z.
Rain free and VFR conditions should return by around 04z.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure setting up north of Florida will favor southeast flow
today becoming easterly by tonight and holding through at least
Wednesday. Wind speeds will increase Monday and Tuesday as a
gradient develops between the ridge and a low pressure system
forming in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This will favor Small
Craft Exercise Caution or perhaps Small Craft Advisory conditions
possible beginning Monday. Locally higher winds and rough seas
will be possible in the vicinity of daily thunderstorms.

On Thursday, the forecast gets more uncertain as models are
starting to hint at the possibility of tropical low pushing west
into Florida from the Atlantic. While it is too early to say
whether or not this system will develop or effect the coastal
waters, mariners should follow the forecast closely for future
updates.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 332 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

No humidity concerns. High dispersion indices are expected across
the area on Monday afternoon.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TPA  93  77  93  77 /  60  40  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  77 /  40  30  30  10
GIF  94  75  91  75 /  60  30  20  10
SRQ  94  75  94  76 /  50  40  30  10
BKV  94  72  94  72 /  60  40  20   0
SPG  93  80  94  80 /  60  40  30  10
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&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Fleming