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302
FXUS61 KAKQ 160645
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
245 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry with seasonable temperatures again today. A very warm and
mainly dry pattern then looks to take hold for next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Warm today as ridging builds toward the Mid-Atlantic.

1022mb high pressure is noted over northern NY into Ontario with low
pressure moving across the Dakotas. Aloft, troughing across the
eastern Plains states gives way to ridging extending from the
central Gulf Coast into the Southeast. Satellite and surface
observations show clear skies and light/calm winds across the
region.

Dry and warm again today with upper ridging lifting NE into the
Carolinas by this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will be
similar to yesterday, in the mid to upper 80s inland with onshore
flow keeping temps near the coast in the low 80s. Forecast soundings
continue to show drier air aloft mixing down to the surface this
afternoon which will keep heat index values near the air
temperature. Clear skies are expected tonight with temps in the low
to mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:


- Warming trend continues Monday and Tuesday, but with manageable
  humidity levels.

Center of surface high pressure moves offshore on Monday but
continues to ridge westward into the region which will maintain
onshore (SSE) flow across the area. The anomalously strong upper
heat ridge continues to build over the region. Latest guidance shows
rising heights aloft but not quite to the level advertised 24 hours
ago. Highs Monday will range from the mid 80s along the coast to
around 90 degrees for inland areas. The warmest temps will likely
occur from Richmond north and west. Overnight low temps fall into
the mid to upper 60s.

H5 heights rise to ~596 dam Tuesday. A mostly sunny sky will result
in highs a few degrees above the forecast values for Monday,
generally in the low to perhaps mid 90s. Again, the warmest temps
are forecast from the Richmond metro north. Afternoon dew points
will remain in the 60s with relative higher values across the N and
NW portions of the area, resulting in heat indices in the mid 90s.
The core of the upper ridge will lift north of the area Tuesday
evening with low temps again in the mid 60s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Very warm and dry weather likely persists through next weekend.

Medium range period looks to continue an extended stretch of very
warm and mainly dry conditions. The anomalously strong upper heat
ridge continues to build as it drifts north along the eastern
seaboard. This will maintain the atypical temperature pattern
through midweek with slightly warmer highs to the north, as E-SE
winds keep coastal areas into the Hampton Roads/N OBX area slightly
cooler. H5 heights rise to ~598 dam Wed with high temps in the low
90s.

EPS/GEFS guidance does (very) slowly break down the heat ridge for
the mid to late week period, as an inverted upper trough pushes
ashore along the deep south from the western Atlantic, undercutting
the core of the heat ridge aloft to our north. This will result in a
continued very warm/dry late week period. High temps hold in the
low/mid 90s through the week. However, as surface dew points are
forecast to remain in the 60s, we don`t appear likely to see heat
indices in the triple digits through Thursday.

The hottest part of the week at this time actually looks to be
Friday into next weekend, as high pressure slides offshore of the
mid-Atlantic coast into the western Atlantic. A more typical
summertime Bermuda Ridge pattern then allows heat to build
Friday with highs into the mid 90s. EPS/GEFS probs and
thickness schemes from both the ECMWF and GFS favoring more
widespread mid to upper 90s and Max Heat Indices creeping into
the upper 90s to low 100s on Saturday. Overnight lows stay in
the 60s for most of the week but will average closer to 70
degrees heading into next weekend as low level moisture
increases. A low chance for thunderstorms may materialize by
next weekend, as a weak lee trough sets up Sat/Sun.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 06z TAF period. Dry/mainly
SKC skies overnight with generally light and variable winds as
high pressure builds into the region. FEW to SCT cumulus (~5000
to 6000 ft) develop late this morning into the afternoon. Winds
become E to SE by mid morning around 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook: Winds will average 10 kt or less with dry/VFR conditions
and a mostly clear into early next week as high pressure
gradually shifts off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
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As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Prevailing sub-advisory conditions are expected through the
remainder of the weekend and into the early and middle part of next
week.

- Southeast winds will briefly gust to around 20 knots for a few
hours Monday evening.

High pressure is centered over the northeast CONUS early this
morning with light E-SE winds over the waters. Winds gradually
become SE and increase to 10-15 kt by this aftn/evening (highest on
the Ches Bay), before becoming S 10 kt tonight. Occasional gusts to
20 kt are possible on the bay (and perhaps the rivers) this evening.
The high will push offshore on Monday, and there will be a diurnal
increase in SE winds (to around 15 kt) by the late aftn/evening. A 2-
4 hour period of 20 kt gusts is likely across the bay during the
evening, with local wind probs showing a 35-60% chc of sustained 18
kt winds between 5-10 PM Monday. Winds become S 10-15 kt Mon night
and are expected to remain generally diurnal (SE 10-15 kt in the
afternoon/evening and S aob 10 kt at night) through the week as a
ridge remains over the East Coast.

Waves and seas will remain 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft, respectively, through
the middle of next week. The exception is a brief increase in waves
to 2-3 ft late Mon afternoon into early Mon night as winds increase.
There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches today
and Mon (low at VA Beach and Outer Banks Currituck).
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&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI