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880
FXUS61 KALY 240542
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
142 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move through eastern New York and
western New England with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms ending.  An upper level disturbance will bring cooler
and less humid weather today with a few additional showers. Dry
weather returns on Tuesday before another system brings chances
for more showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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As of 140 AM EDT...The cold front is moving across extreme
eastern NY and southern VT this hour with a band of showers and
a few thunderstorms moving east of the southern Green Mtns and
the northern Berkshires. A few showers are further south. The
winds are shifting to the southwest to west with a dewpoint
boundary moving through the southern Dacks and w-central Mohawk
Valley. In the NYS mesonet...dewpoints are down into the 50s in
Herkimer and portions of Hamilton Counties. The low level cold
and dry advection will continue prior to daybreak.

Expect the west winds to increase to 10 to 20 mph with some
gusts 20-30 mph by daybreak. Low temps will fall back into the
50s to lower/mid 60s. The showers will end, except for some lake
enhance showers off Lake Ontario for the western Dacks prior to
daybreak.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-level trough/low will push across the region on Monday.
The associated cold pool will support some rain showers
especially for western areas. Otherwise, it will be a cooler,
breezy and less humid day with highs only reaching the 60s and
70s.

High pressure will then build into the region Monday night and
on Tuesday with a period of dry weather. 850 hPa temperatures
rebound to +15 to +17C which will allow temperatures to rise
back into the 80s to around 90 except the mid to upper 70s
across the higher elevations.

A warm front associated with our next system will lift northward
across our region Tuesday night. A few showers and rumbles of
thunder will be possible along the front especially for northern
and western areas. A milder night is expected with lows only in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
We will be warm sectored again on Wednesday ahead of another low
pressure system and approaching cold front. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop along a prefrontal trough
especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of this
convection, it will be warm and humid once again with highs
reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations
and mid-70s to lower 80s in the higher elevations. We may
approach heat advisory criteria for parts of the area especially
along the mid-Hudson Valley.

This system departs the area Wednesday night with high pressure
returning with cooler, less humid and dry weather to end the
week. Yet another low pressure system may cross the region next
weekend with additional showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 06z Tuesday...Earlier showers and storms have come to and
end with currently VFR conditions at all TAF sites. Mainly VFR
conditions expected through around daybreak, but for most of the day
today ALB/GFL/PSF will have borderline VFR/MVFR cigs with cloud
bases between 2500 and 3500 ft. Additionally, these TAF sites could
see scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder tomorrow
afternoon. Have added prob30 groups to highlight shower chances
tomorrow. Any showers will likely result in MVFR cigs and vsbys. POU
should see VFR conditions prevail through the day and is expected to
remain dry.

Showers taper off around sunset tomorrow and any MVFR cigs scatter
out with prevailing VFR conditions from 00z through at least the end
of the TAF period.

Winds will be at 5-10 kt from the west/southwest through the
remainder of the night with some gusts of 15-20 kt at ALB/PSF. By
mid-morning, winds increase to around 10 kt from the west at all TAF
sites with gusts up to 25 kt through the day. This evening, winds
shift to the northwest still at roughly 10 kt with higher gusts, but
should diminish to around 5 kt or less after 03z, except at PSF
where winds remain at 5-10 kt through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Main