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086
FXUS61 KBGM 211349
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
949 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Hot and humid conditions with scattered thunderstorms are
expected again today, with the focus expanding into
northeastern Pennsylvania. A few stronger storms may produce
damaging winds and torrential rainfall. Heat and humidity is
expected to continue through the weekend with relief coming
Monday.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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949 AM update...
Valley fog has scoured out this morning leaving most of the
area under mostly sunny skies. This should be quickly replaced
by a rapidly developing cumulus field that will eventually build
into scattered showers and thunderstorms around or just after
12 PM. Some minor adjustments were made to the forecast
PoPs/Weather/QPF for today into this evening, mainly to account
for the lower chances of precip across the northern counties
after 3 PM. No significant changes were made to the temperatures
and heat indices today. Still expecting highs into the upper 80s
and lower 90s in central/srn NY and lower to mid 90s in ne PA
valley locations. Heat indices will range from 90-105 across the
region.

410 AM Update:

Broad subtropical ridge will retreat southward just a little today.
Weak disturbances embedded in westerly flow aloft will help kick off
scattered showers and thunderstorms again today, mainly focused
along a quasi-stationary front as it sags south towards the NY/PA
line. As a result, precip chances will spread south from CNY into
NEPA today. Localized torrential rainfall will again be favored
today as PWAT values range from 1.75 to 2 inches across the
area, though slightly drier air will begin to infiltrate north-
central NY later in the afternoon as activity pushes south.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler today north of the
aforementioned front, with highs topping out in the mid to upper-80s
across north central NY, including Syracuse and the Thruway
corridor. Hotter temperatures and slightly higher dewpoints will be
prevalent from the Southern Finger Lakes into the Southern Tier and
NEPA, where Heat Index values will again reach Heat Advisory
Criteria (95 in NY, 100 in PA).

We`ll see the usual diurnal downturn in precip coverage tonight,
though the southern edge of some areas of showers and thunderstorms
may graze areas north of the Thruway early Saturday. Otherwise,
another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the
region Saturday. Max temperatures on Saturday will be similar to
what we see today (Friday), but Heat Index values may encroach on
the 105 mark in the Wyoming Valley of PA. Still enough uncertainty
and time on our side, so kept the Excessive Heat Watch as-is for the
time being.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
410 AM Update:

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday
night, with the highest chance being over areas north of the NYS
Thruway as a warm front will be draped nearby. PoPs in this area
peak around 50-60% overnight. Remaining warm and muggy with lows
Saturday night in the upper 60s and low 70s.

The pattern is finally expected to shift Sunday as the strong upper-
level ridge responsible for the long duration heat and humidity
begins breaking down as a shortwave trough and surface cold front
approach from the west. This will lead to an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms Sunday, especially during the afternoon
and evening when precipitation appears likely. With the cold front
trending a little bit faster early this morning, moving into our
area during peak heating hours, along with 1000-1500 J/kg of surface-
based CAPE in place and 30-40 knots of shear, there will be the
potential for some stronger storms to develop. Mid-level lapse rates
are not very impressive at this point, so this looks to be more of a
wind threat with any potential stronger storms along with heavy
downpours with PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches. The SPC has
outlooked the entire CWA in a marginal risk this day. With
uncertainty with the timing of the front, cloud cover and the
convection, temperatures on Sunday will be tricky to forecast. Highs
have trended down several degrees across CNY in the low and mid 80s
with the faster progression of the front, while the Twin Tiers into
NE PA range from the mid 80s to the low 90s.

As the front pushes east, the upper trough will lag behind over the
area on Monday, keeping the chance for scatted showers and maybe a
thunderstorm around. However, cooler, drier air will be moving in
for most areas as dew points fall back into the upper 50s and low
60s by the afternoon. Highs Monday are expected to be from the mid
70s to the low 80s. With the Wyoming Valley being one of the last
spots for this more refreshing air to move into, highs this day can
still reach the mid and upper 80s. It will feel more comfortable
Monday night with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
410 AM Update...

High pressure briefly builds in overhead Tuesday leading to a dry
day before another front looks to bring the chance for showers and
storms back into the area Wednesday into Thursday. With ridging
aloft Tuesday, high temperatures are expected to trend back into the
80s, but it`s not expected to feel too humid as dew points remain in
the upper 50s and low 60s, but they will be trending up Wednesday
ahead of the front. Wednesday is expected to also expected to have
highs in the 80s, and perhaps nearing 90 degrees in a few places,
before cooler air moves in again for the second half of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail for most sites overnight, though
valley fog is expected to set in at ELM before dawn, possibly at
RME as well, though there is lower confidence at RME.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later Friday
around the region. However, a stray, isolated shower or storm
cannot be ruled out in the morning hours too; mainly across the
CNY terminals of SYR/RME. Maintained PROB30 groups for possible
thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening hours at
ITH/ELM/BGM where probabilities are the highest.

Outlook...

Friday night through Monday...Spotty restrictions possible in
showers and thunderstorms.

VFR conditions possible on Tuesday with high pressure.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for PAZ038>040-048-072.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ043-044-047.
     Excessive Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for PAZ043-044-047.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NYZ022>025-055-056-
     062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT/MPH
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPH
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPH