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719
FXUS61 KBUF 250728
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
328 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Warm and humid conditions will return today and last into Wednesday.
Along with it...there will be increasing chances of showers and some
thunderstorms, especially on Wednesday. Cooler less humid conditions
Thursday through Friday with dry weather. Active weather makes a
return Saturday as a cold front crosses the region.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Quiet weather area wide for the rest of the overnight hours into
this morning.

The axis of the sfc ridge will exit off to our east today. Return
southerly flow is advertised to pick up this afternoon with some
wind gusts up to 30 mph across Western NY. That said...a warm
frontal segment is advertised to cross the region this afternoon
which may introduce a shower or an isolated thunderstorm. There is
also some indication that the remnants of the upstream convection
(MCS) from overnight will possibly make it into the region. HRRR and
all hi-res guidance bring it into Western NY but in a very weakened
state before it then crosses the North Country/St. Lawrence Valley
this afternoon. Eitherway...still can`t rule out some showers or a
thunderstorm as this wave works through the region. The best shot
will be across the North Country and St. Lawrence valley where
higher PoPs have been placed.

Otherwise...highs today will be found mainly in the 80s with the
warmer spots in the mid to upper 80s.

Tonight...a cold front will cross the region with additional chances
for some showers or a isolated thunderstorm. The best chances will
be found again across the North Country closer to the support from
the upper-level jet. In terms of low temps...we should see mercury
reading in the 60s mainly by sunrise Wednesday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The cold front should all but be clear of the region by
Wednesday morning. However a wave riding northeast along the
boundary may significantly slow its southeastward progression,
possibly lingering the front across areas south of the NYS
Thruway into Wednesday afternoon. Here in lies the problem as
this will allow our severe weather chances to remain in place
across these areas, while areas to the north would have much
lower chances for strong storms. Currently, SPC has the northern
edge of a Day 3 Marginal Risk just clipping the western
Southern Tier, which lines up well with our thinking of the
frontal positioning. PWATs near 1.5" may also lead to some areas
of heavy rainfall with the strongest storms, again mainly south
of the NYS Thruway if this scenario holds true. It will be a
warm day with more humid conditions. Highs will mainly be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

As the wave pushes east of the area, the initial cold front will
push south of our area. A secondary cold front will then cross the
region Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a much more
refreshing airmass moving into the region in its wake. With deeper
moisture departing east with initial wave, not expecting more than
some scattered showers/isolated rumble of thunder as the boundary
passes through the area. Depending of the speed of the front, a few
showers may linger across eastern areas Thursday morning, otherwise
a dome of high pressure builds in from the west bringing dry weather
through Friday with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. In
fact, below normal temperatures are expected Thursday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Similar to the first part of
the work week, high pressure then slides east of the area Friday
with a warming southerly return flow boosting temperatures back near
normal with highs mainly in the mid 70s to low 80s.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

As mentioned above, quasi-zonal flow remains in place through this
period, with two notable features being a warm front followed by a
cold front, both slated to push across the area this weekend. Both
of these features will bring the next round of showers and storms to
the region, however differences in exact timing of said frontal
boundaries continues to be a point of discrepancy amongst the "big
3." Nothing too uncommon at this time range. With this in mind, will
keep the goal posts a bit wider, with most of the more active
weather likely occurring somewhere in the Friday night through
Saturday night timeframe. Will be able to shrink this window down as
we get closer in time. That said, there will once again be a
secondary cold front crossing the region which brings the return of
dry weather and yet another cooler, more refreshing airmass to
western and northcentral NY in its wake. Question is timing of this
secondary boundary as well. If the later in time solution comes to
fruition, a few showers/isolated storms could linger into at least
the first part of Sunday.

Warm and humid to start the weekend will trend to cooler and less
humid conditions for the second half of the weekend into the start
of the new work week.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in
another much more refreshing airmass into western and north central
New York for the latter part of the work week. This should
result in dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs lower to
mid 70s Thursday, then as the airmass starts to modify with
surface high moving east of our area Friday will see high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points in the 50s
will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June.

Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances will
return as we head into the weekend as the next frontal system
approaches from the west. Depending upon the timing of the frontal
passage Saturday should be the more uncomfortable of the two weekend
days with highs well into the 80s and higher humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR to remain across all area terminals overnight. There may be some
limited patchy fog in the S. Tier river valleys but low confidence
to see any impacts at KJHW.

South to southwest winds pick up today across far western terminals
to include KBUF, KIAG, and KJHW. Winds up to 30 knots will be
possible. There is also the chance of some showers as remnants of the
upstream MCS crosses the region. With it...Cigs will also begin to
lower, with some MVFR ceilings by this evening.

Tonight...a mix of VFR/MVFR Cigs will be found across most area
terminals. Lower Cigs (IFR) may materialize across the S. Tier to
include KJHW, along with some patchy fog producing lower vsbys.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers most area terminals.
Showers and a chance of thunderstorm across the Southern Tier.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.
Saturday...Localized restrictions with shower likely and a chance of
thunderstorms.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Some chop will be found on area lakes overnight but overall winds
will be light.

A south to southwest wind flow picks up across Lake Erie and the
western end of Lake Ontario today. Waves will be offshore, but a
period of Small Craft Advisories are possible beginning this
afternoon into the evening. There will also be a chance of some
showers, this as a pair of fronts cross the region. Winds will
remain elevated on area lakes tonight with light to moderate chop on
both lakes. Lighter winds and wave action then develops Wednesday on
Wednesday but there may be better coverage of shower and storm for
Lake Erie.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR