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911
FXUS64 KFWD 140012
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
712 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/Through Friday/

The strong sub-tropical ridge anchored over the southern Rockies
will continue to shift eastward over the next 24 hours while a
weak upper low moves onshore near southern California. Increasing
mid-level heights will push afternoon temperatures into the mid
90s on Friday with heat indices climbing to near or above 100
degrees, particularly west of the I-35 corridor. Lows tonight will
generally range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, though urban
areas may hover closer to the mid 70s through daybreak.

Tonight`s slightly drier boundary layer should mitigate the
development of widespread fog, however given calm winds and
lingering shallow moisture there remains some potential for patchy
fog development across parts of Central Texas around sunrise. The
area most likely to see fog development will be near and south of
a line from Buckholts, TX (Milam County) to Elkhart, TX (Anderson
County). Any fog that develops will be shallow and should
dissipate an hour or two after sunrise.

12
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/Issued 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

Long story short:

Expect a quiet weekend before an unsettled pattern brings on and off
rain chances next week.

Short story long:

A closed upper low currently off the coast of SoCal will de-amplify
into an open shortwave as it moves onshore and towards the Central
Plains this weekend. As it does, the upper level ridge (mentioned in
the short term discussion above) will be shifted towards the Deep
South in response. The shortwave will slowly move across the
Continental Divide early this weekend, but North and Central Texas
will remain dry as better moisture and lift remain displaced to the
north. A warm weekend is expected with afternoon temperatures in
the 90s and heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100-101.

Over this upcoming week, North and Central Texas will find
themselves between a trough and a high place. We`ll continue to be
located on the back edge of the eastern ridge through the week, with
a longwave trough to our northwest. Moisture advection will
really increase beginning early in the week, ushering abundant
tropical moisture in the form of around 2" PWATs and 70s dewpoints
in to the region. While overall forcing will remain nebulous
without a direct focusing boundary/shortwave, diurnal heating will
allow for isolated-scattered showers and storms during the
afternoons on Monday and Tuesday, mainly across our east and
southeast zones. Isolated storm chances will expand region-wide in
the latter portions of this next week as the northern extent of a
tropical wave in the western GOM advances further inland. We`ll
continue to watch for more fine-scale details as they come in, but
threats of heavy rain and lightning will interrupt any outdoor
plans.

Prater
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR conditions expected through the 00Z TAF period. Surface winds
will continue to vary between easterly and southerly with speeds
below 10 knots. Though there is a chance for patchy fog
development in Central and Southeast Texas around sunrise,
associated visibility restrictions should remain well south and
east of all TAF sites.

12
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  96  74  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                72  95  72  93  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  94  69  94  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              71  95  70  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            70  94  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              73  96  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             69  94  70  94  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  94  72  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  94  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       71  95  70  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$