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905
FXUS64 KFWD 211850
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
150 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/Issued 101 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/
/Through Saturday Afternoon/

High pressure will continue to build across North and Central
Texas through the first half of the weekend. With subsidence in
place, temperatures will climb to the lower to mid 90s today and
mid 90s tomorrow. Low-level southerly flow will help draw plenty
of moisture into our region, bumping heat index values a few
degrees above the actual temperature. Most locations will likely
experience heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.

Southerly winds will persist through tomorrow afternoon,
generally between 5-10 mph.

Hernandez
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&&

.LONG TERM... 
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/NEW/
/Sunday and Beyond/

The main story of the long-term forecast is the arrival of this
year`s first long duration period of impactful heat early next
week.

A stout 597dam upper ridge currently centered over the Tennessee
River Valley will shift westward over the next several days. The
ridge axis will shift overhead North and Central Texas early next
week before settling over the Desert Southwest by Wednesday. This
pattern will result in the hottest temperatures of the year thus
far with widespread afternoon highs in the mid-to upper 90s
expected Sunday and beyond into the foreseeable future through at
least the end of the next work week. The most likely area for
temperatures to exceed the century mark will start across our Big
Country counties generally along/west of Highway 281. The areal
coverage of triple-digit temperature readings may expand as we get
further into the week with Monday or Tuesday potentially being
DFW`s first 100-degree day of the year (20-30% chance). If we get
a 100-degree reading at DFW Airport sometime this week, that will
place this year`s first 100-degree day about a week before the
average date of July 1st.

Hot temperatures will continue through the week with several
locations across North and Central Texas reaching triple-digits on
a daily basis through the end of next week. Persistent south-
southeasterly flow beneath the upper ridge will keep low-level
moisture and high humidity sprawled across the region. Thus,
expect afternoon heat index values to peak in the 105-110 degree
range across much of our forecast area. A return to daily heat
headlines is likely by Monday or Tuesday of next week. Warm
overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s will also increase the
likelihood of heat stress. Make sure to take the proper heat
safety precautions and check up on your friends and family members
who may be more vulnerable to heat-related illnesses!

As the ridge becomes centered over the Desert Southwest by
Wednesday, NNW flow aloft will take shape over our region
increasing the potential for thunderstorm complexes to propagate
south out of OK/KS into North Texas. With these complexes being so
dependent on smaller, mesoscale processes, we will limit rain
chances to 20-30% for the Wednesday-Thursday time frame at this
moment.

Langfeld
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&&

.AVIATION... 
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/Issued 101 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...None.

No major weather impacts are expected at any of the North and
Central TAF sites. Southerly winds between 10-15 knots will
prevail through the duration of this forecast. Some low clouds
will be possible across Central Texas, however, they should remain
just south of KACT. Some high clouds will continue to stream
across the sky today and tomorrow.

Hernandez
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  96  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  93  74  95  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               72  94  75  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              74  97  76  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            74  95  77  99  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77  97  78  99  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             74  94  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           76  95  77  95  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              73  93  73  95  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  95  74  97  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$