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574
FXUS62 KILM 161712
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
112 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the north and maintains control
through much of this week. Seasonably warm temperatures are
expected with rain chances returning late in the week as
possible tropical disturbance moves inland across the Southeast
coast.
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&&

.UPDATE...
Yesterday`s front remains stalled across South Carolina.
Easterly flow behind the front is advecting a humid marine
airmass onshore with dewpoints likely to remain in the 70s from
Myrtle Beach westward across the southern half of the Pee Dee
region. Enough instability should exist here this afternoon to
pop a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm, especially from
Florence westward across Darlington county where I`ve increased
PoPs by about 10 percent. Onshore flow should help keep
temperatures 3-8 degrees cooler than yesterday.

Changes with this forecast centered on rain chances and near-
term cloud cover trends.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will extend into the area from the north today and
tonight while an old front lingers to the south and west.  While
much of the area will remain dry today and tonight, there is a small
chance for showers and storms over our western areas that are nearer
the boundary.  Skies will be mainly sunny east and partly cloudy
west. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with cooler
numbers nearer the beaches.  Lows tonight will fall to the upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level ridge will build across the area through
the short term period with the associated surface high axis well off
to the northeast. A relatively deep east to northeasterly flow will
keep temperatures hovering spot on climatology with no chances for
rain. Highs will range from the middle 80s or so along the coast
with values near 90 well inland. Lows will be a little more uniform
with basically middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Somewhat remarkably consistent forecast even in the
warm season when things can have a tendency not to change much. The
aforementioned mid level ridge in the short term discussion will
shift northward with the modified easterly flow continuing.
Temperatures remain within a few degrees of climatology leaning
warmer late. Medium range guidance is also liking a tropical wave or
low moving across the region (probably more south considering the
massive ridge) which may bring a few showers and or increased cloud
cover later in the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A dissipating front extends SE-NW across South Carolina. Onshore
winds behind this system are bringing in Atlantic moisture which
is leading to extensive cumulus clouds and some scattered
showers. VFR conditions are expected to prevail except in
isolated spots under these small convective cores, none of which
should last long. The KFLO airport stands the best potential to
see impacts from showers this afternoon, mainly before 22z.

Tonight VFR conditions are expected with two caveats: a low
potential for MVFR stratocumulus ceilings along the coast
affecting KMYR, KCRE, and KILM; and a low potential for MVFR
visibility in ground fog late tonight at the KFLO airport.

Extended Outlook...VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
East winds of 10 to 15 KT are expected today and tonight, though
speeds could drop off a little tonight.  Seas of 2 to 4 feet are
expected.

Monday through Thursday...
Uncanny persistence for the marine community as well with
basically east winds of 10-15 knots and seas at least early on in a
range of 2-4 feet. The persistent fetch leads to a significant swell
component developing by mid to late week with increasing chances of
small craft conditions.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...SHK/31